Thinkers map out strategy for decade ahead
Identify threats and opportunities; say India can surpass China as a ‘parallel civilisational state’
Amidst rapid geopolitical change and economic transformation worldwide, what should be India’s strategic trajectory in the coming decade?
A group of the country’s most reputed strategists, historians, economists, and Generals have identified the most important threats and opportunities before India. On Saturday, they will release a document for public discussion on how India can manage strategic risks, while expanding – or at least retaining – its freedom of action.
“Critical decisions must be taken now to ensure the coming decade sets the stage for India’s emergence as a front-ranking power in Asia and beyond,” stated a press release on Tuesday.
“This would involve strengthening partnerships with the US, Japan, and Europe, which share India's security concerns and remain key sources of capital, trade, and technology,” said the report. At the same time, “Indiarussia relations will continue to be relevant in dealing with issues in the region and in responding to global challenges”, it stated.
The authors of the report, titled India's Path to Power: Strategy in a World Adrift, include former foreign secretaries Shyam Saran and Shivshankar Menon, Ashoka University professors Sunil Khilnani and Srinath Raghavan, Yamini Aiyar of the Centre for Policy Research, former military advisor to the National Security Council Lieutenant General Prakash Menon, and Nitin Pai and Ajit Ranade from the Takshashila Institution.
Many of them had contributed to writing a similar report in 2012 titled Nonalignment 2.0: A Foreign and Strategic Policy for India in the 21st Century. That report identified basic principles that should guide India’s foreign and strategic policy over the next decade.
Core elements of the report
“The centre of gravity of the global economy continues to shift from the shores of the Atlantic to Asia and the ongoing pandemic is accelerating this shift,” stated a summary of the report’s key findings. “There is an unmistakeable trend towards multipolarity in Asia and the world, and it is in India’s interest to reinforce this trend,” it added.
In the military domain, the report sees an increasing prospect of a collusive threat from China and Pakistan. The report “demands a politically guided strategic approach that identifies, prioritises, and develops pertinent forms of power, which are housed in structures that promote centralised planning and decentralised execution”.
With respect to the “China challenge”, the authors believe India is the only country with the comparable area, population, history, manpower, and scientific and technological capabilities to not only match, but to surpass China as a parallel civilisational state.
New Delhi’s pursuit of an expanded regional and global role will only yield results if it manages its sub-continental neighbourhood better. The report warns against the tendency for domestic politics in border states – such as Tamil Nadu and West Bengal – to spill across international borders into neighbouring countries. “India’s domestic politics must not become a constraint on its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy," said the press release.
The authors believe globalisation is here to stay, notwithstanding the ongoing economic slowdown. Therefore, “India must maintain an outward orientation of its economy and avoid being pushed to the margins of the regional and global economy”. The report acknowledged an “existential threat from climate change”. India, it said, needs to balance economic growth with ecological sustainability, by leveraging advanced technologies.
Another mounting challenge that must be addressed is in the cyber domain.