Experts question WHO’S report on Covid deaths

India’s birth and death registration data was not used: AIIMS director

Questioning the modelling methodology used by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to estimate 4.7 million deaths in India due to Covid19 or its impact, top health experts have expressed disappointment over the global health body's ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach to arrive at the figure.

Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) director general Balram Bhargava, NITI Aayog member (Health) V K Paul, All India Institute of India (AIIMS) director Randeep Guleria and NTAGI'S Covid-19 Working Group chairman Dr N K Arora on Thursday rejected the WHO report as ‘untenable and unfortunate’.

According to the report, there were 4.7 million Covid-19 deaths in India — 10 times the official figures and almost a third of Covid-19 deaths globally.

Rejecting it, Dr V K Paul said India has been telling WHO with all humility through diplomatic channels along with data and rational reasoning that it does not agree with the methodology that has been followed for the country.

“We have a similar system, a robust Civil Registration System (CRS). We released that report yesterday (Wednesday) and we have an actual count of deaths for 2020... the 2021 numbers will also come up," he said.

The CRS provides accurate estimates emanating from the ground, certified and validated by the district and the state administration.

"We wanted them to have used these numbers. Unfortunately, despite our emphatic writing and communication at the ministerial level, they have chosen to use the numbers that are based on modelling and assumptions," Paul said.

"Modelling is a one-sizefits-all kind of assumption and you may apply it where the systems are poor. But to apply assumptions based on a subset of states and on reports that come from websites and media, and then you come out with an exorbitant number is not tenable. We are disappointed with what WHO has done," he stated.

These kinds of assumptions used for a nation of India's size "to put us in poor light is not desirable," Paul added.

Assuring the country that the government has nothing to hide, Paul said there is still an active process by which Covid deaths are being reconciled.

"Our numbers are there and we have a robust system from the ground. We, therefore, do not accept these numbers, we reject them," he said.

Arora described the WHO report as very unfortunate. “India performed unexpectedly well in Covid-19 management. In fact, many prestigious journals in the world had predicted doom for India,” he said.

Bhargava said there was no definition of Covid-19 deaths.

"Even WHO did not have any definition for death... So, we looked at all the data that we had and we concluded that 95 per cent of the deaths that occurred after testing positive for Covid-19 were occurring in the first four weeks. So a 30day cut-off was given for the definition of death," he said.

Guleria also raised objections to the WHO report.

"I'll give three broad reasons for that. One is that India has a very robust system of birth and death registration and that data is available. WHO has not used that data. The second important issue is the data that WHO used is more hearsay evidence or what has been there in the media or from unconfirmed sources. That data itself is questionable. To do modelling on that data is not correct and it's not scientifically the right, especially when you have data," he said.

“TO APPLY ASSUMPTIONS BASED ON A SUBSET OF STATES AND ON REPORTS FROM WEBSITES AND MEDIA, AND THEN COME OUT WITH AN EXORBITANT NUMBER IS NOT TENABLE”

VINOD KUMAR PAUL NITI Aayog member (Health)