Rains to revive next week, may boost kharif sowing
After a slow start, the southwest monsoon, which reached Mumbai over the weekend, is expected to gather steam, leading to possibilities of a decline in the seasonal deficit and kharif sowing being spurred, according to weathermen.
“From June 14-15 we should see a significant uptick in the rains with the monsoon expected to cover most of East India and the beginning of good premonsoon activity over Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat,” R K Jenamani, senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told Business Standard.
He said with the rains picking up, the seasonal cumulative deficit would go down. The deficit as on June 11 stood at 43 per cent less than normal (see chart).
The rains gathering strength and the monsoon’s smooth advance over Central and Northern parts of the country should step up kharif sowing, which till the first week of this month was low for several crops. The expectation is that if the rains turn out to be good, there could be more than an average increase in the acreage of several crops because prices were remunerative in the last season.
“From next week onwards, North India, particularly Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi, will start getting good pre-monsoon showers and if the momentum is maintained the shortage can be wiped off by the end of June,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet Weather said.
The IMD, while releasing its second-stage forecast for the 2022 monsoon season on May 22, had said in June rains in the country were expected to be “normal” at 92-108 per cent of the long-period average.
In June, India gets around 16.54 cm of the estimated 87 cm.
Palawat said precipitation might be good in the next four months because according to latest weather models, La Nina, which was expected to weaken in the coming weeks, might remain cool at least till August, which should aid the monsoon.
Ahead of the kharif planting season, the government last week announced the minimum support prices (MSPS) for the 2022-23 crop season, which will start in July, raising them by 4-9 per cent, with the highest hikes for pulses and oilseeds.
“Though in the case of tur and urad the MSP has been increased by 4.76 per cent, the area now under pulses might shift to oilseeds, specially soybean in MP, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan, while in Gujarat there will be competition among groundnut, soybean and cotton for acreage this kharif,” Rahul Chauhan, commodity analyst at igrain India, told Business Standard.
In Karnataka, pulses acreage may shift to maize, soybean, and marginally cotton, while in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the area under groundnut might rise.