India’s per capita power output rebounds sharply

India’s per capita electricity generation has gone further past its 2019 level than seen in many other lower middle-income countries.

The World Bank defines a lower middle-income economy as one where per capita gross national income (GNI), or the amount earned per person in a year, was between $1,046 and $4,095 in 2020. India falls in this category, along with nearby countries, including Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Mongolia — which all are facing power shortages like India amid higher energy prices. India’s per capita electricity generation is up 3.8 per cent in 2021 over the 2019 level. It is up only 0.2 per cent on average for lower-middle-income countries. India’s per capita electricity generation had dropped from 1,173 kilowatt-hours (kwh) in 2019 to 1,131 kwh in 2020. Then it rose to 1,218 kwh in 2021.

The change in per capita electricity generation vastly differed among other lower middle-income nations —while some reported a decline of over 10 per cent in 2021 as against 2019, several others witnessed double-digit growth.

The analysis looked at the median number for 12 nations in the group and compared that with India. The 12 countries for which data was available are Bangladesh, Bolivia, El Salvador, Kenya, Mongolia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Senegal, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Ukraine, and Vietnam. It used numbers from the tracker Our World in Data, which collated statistics from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Ember Global Electricity Review (2022), and Ember European Electricity Review (2022). Both rural and urban areas are facing power shortages in Pakistan, leading to a scheduled power cut of at least 3.5 hours per day. Mongolia has imposed usage restrictions for its industrial sector since March, while Sri Lanka is witnessing extreme power shortages.

“We need to find energy solutions from time to time, depending on our requirements. We are going at a faster pace compared to a lot of other countries. We are a large country and in capacity terms, we will be the third or fourth in the world. These numbers will be dependent on how fast the economy and the manufacturing sector grows,” said Mohit Kumar, a research analyst at IDFC Securities. Experts indicate that the sector has grown only 4-5 per cent in India against an expectation of 6-7 per cent.

Industry analysts are blaming lack of additional coal-based capacity as a major reason for the current power shortage. “If the generation is not enough, there will be a shortage. Shortages happen from time to time because we are not adding firm capacity, coal-based capacity. We are looking at renewables which are viable or sufficient available all the time,” Kumar said.

India consistently reported higher per capita power generation than other lower middle-income countries for a decade. It exceeded their per capita consumption in 2011. It was 8.58 per cent higher as of 2020.

A degree of convergence in the per capita consumption of electricity has been noted by earlier studies, including a 2008 study — The world per capita electricity consumption distribution: Signs of convergence? — by Adolfo Maza and José Villaverde of the University of Cantabria (Spain), but this was expected to take time to play out fully.

An analysis of the data shows lower middle-income countries had per capita power generation of 1,041 kwh in 2020. This was 1,131 KWH for India. For highincome countries, it was 8,728 KWH. A kilowatt-hour is the amount of power required to have a 100-watt bulb burning for 10 hours. For every such bulb that an Indian can turn on, the resident of a high-income country can turn on nine.