The Guide to Fighting Coronavirus
Stage 1:
Survive (0-3 months)
In this phase, which could last for three months, travel and tourism companies will have to ensure that they have enough cash for salaries and other fixed expenses
In a typical hotel chain, 15 per cent employees account for 50 per cent payroll expenses. Instead of firing lower level staff, top management should take 50-70 per cent salary cuts
Request the government to provide relief in the form of tax waivers (statutory, municipality). Ask RBI to extend moratorium period (on loans)
Stage 2:
Revive (3-12 months)
In about six months, when there would be some kind of cure (but no vaccine), domestic travel segment would likely pick up; it is being loosely called revenge travel (frequent travellers who couldn’t travel during lockdown will go on shorter holidays, avoiding public transport)
Following revenge travel, the leisure travel is likely to remain weak. Hotel room rates would fall but airfares would rise. This is going to affect travel patterns of financially distressed households.
Since international travel would still be almost zero during this period and no corporate events and incentive travel, the companies would need to emphasise more on domestic travellers, particularly business traveller from small enterprises and self-employed professionals
Costs of operations would rise marginally as companies would spend more on hygiene and stick to social distancing norms – examples like IndiGo flying half-full planes. Perception is going to play a big role in bringing back the confidence of travellers
Stage 3:
Thrive (Beyond 12 months)
In one year from now, by the time a possible vaccine would be out, travel and tourism would change completely. A new world order would take place
It’s estimated that 20 per cent of travel and tourism companies will not survive for this long
Companies would need to focus on some low-hanging fruits like pulling foreign destination weddings (in middle-east and south-east Asia) back to India
Companies would need to seek opportunities in new destinations (Buddhist circuit, especially for international travellers) and craft new products (Yoga and wellnessoriented) suited for a new kind of traveller
Most services sectors, particularly travel and tourism, would become low-touch areas (automated room deliveries, self check-ins)
It is expected to take two-three years for hotel and aviation capacity to come back to 2019 levels