How will the voter turnout be in Lok Sabha election 2024?
Hectic preparations for the 2024 general elections are currently underway, and Indians will soon be exercising their ‘right to vote’ in the world’s largest democracy. But, what proportion of Indians have been exercising their right in the past elections? Will there be a Modiwave this time too? A closer look at the past trend can throw some answers.
businessline’s analysis of Lok Sabha elections since 1952 shows that voter turnout in Lok Sabha election ranged between 55 and 68 per cent. The last two general elections recorded the highest voter turnout in India, with 66.4 per cent and 67.4 per cent in the 2014 and 2019 general elections, respectively.
The codirector of the LoknitiCentre for the Study of Developing Societies, Sanjay Kumar, says, “The turnouts have been rising due to various factors. People are becoming more interested in elections and are valuing their votes much more than in the past. The Election Commission has managed to make the voting process much more desirable for the people. Moreover, the quality of the electoral roll has also improved.”
ELECTORAL WAVE
The data from the Election Commission of India shows that out of the past 17 parliamentary elections held in India from 1952 to 2019, voter turnout surpassed 60 per cent in nine elections. Presence of an electoral wave can be one of the reasons behind a surge in voter turnout.
According to an academic journal, South Asia Research, the concept of electoral wave can be interpreted in three distinct ways: as a result of diminishing competitive politics at the national level, stemming from increased voter turnout, and characteriszed by amplified vote share in politics.
The 2019 general elections appears to be a good example of an electoral wave with the opposition in a chaotic mess, highest ever voter turnout and the Narendra Modiled BJP returning to power with a recordhigh 37 per cent vote share.
Historically, out of these nine parliamentary elections, where the voter turnout has been high, in five such elections, a single party has received a majority of votes, while the opposition party’s vote share remained skewed.
In 1967, the Indian National Congress (INC) received a 40 per cent vote share, leading Indira Gandhi to assume the Pprime Mminister’s position. In another instance, INC recorded a 48 per cent vote share due to a sympathy wave following the assassination of Indira Gandhi, favouring Rajiv Gandhi’s government. Despite a decrease to 39 per cent in 1989, INC still secured a clear victory.