GAINERS & LOSERS.
above normal in 2019, 2020 and 2022.
Last year, the IMD had predicted 96 per cent rainfall and the monsoon ended with 94 per cent precipitation, tat is “below normal”.
According to the rainfall map, shown in the presentation by IMD DirectorGeneral M Mohapatra, Odisha, south Chhattisgarh and southwest Bengal are expected to experience below normal rains.
Sources said that coastal Odisha may see droughtlike conditions. In the northwest, Jammu and Kashmir and parts of Himachal Pradesh may see below normal rainfall.
EXCESS RAINS
On the other hand, Tamil Nadu, western Uttar Pradesh, northwest Bengal and most parts of Bihar may have above normal to excess monsoon rains, the sources said.
“The above normal rainfall will definitely help farmers to expand the area. The States where reservoir levels are much lower than normal will get water to fill them and will be able to supply adequate irrigation water to farmers,” PK Singh, Union
Odisha, south Chhattisgarh and south-west Bengal are expected to see below normal rains.
In the north-west region, Jammu and Kashmir and parts of Himachal Pradesh may see below normal rainfall.
Tamil Nadu, western Uttar Pradesh, north-west Bengal and most parts of Bihar may have above normal to excess monsoon rains this year
Agriculture Commissioner, told businessline.
He said that good rains will help farmers save on irrigation costs.
However, distribution and interval of rainfall will be the key factor.
Asked about any possibility of crop damage due to floods or heavy rains in the harvesting period, Singh said it is premature to discuss as many other factors are to be watched.
“Overall, it will be a big boost to Indian agriculture in 2024,” he said.
El Nino, which emerged in June 2023 resulting in deficient rainfall and resulting in drought in parts of the country, will weaken further and result in ENSOneutral by beginning of the monsoon season.
IOD MAY DEVELOP
A weak La Nina, which may bring in heavy rainfall and floods, will emerge during second half of the monsoon season (AugustSeptember), the IMD said.
Signals from the Pacific are favourable for above normal rainfall. Ravichandran said the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, currently at neutral stage, are likely to develop during the latter part of the monsoon season.
The Northern hemisphere snow cover was below normal, which may also help India get better monsoon rainfall. Statistically, most of the conditions are favourable, he added.
The IMD will issue the next monsoon update in May last week, and the onset prediction will be issued midMay. Normally, the monsoon hits Kerala coast on June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8.