El Nino gets stronger, India stares at poor monsoon

Australian MET office claims El Nino effect will be substantial and not weak as predicted earlier

India is likely to have difficult time in the coming months with El Nino — a phenomenon that leads to poor rainfall during the monsoon — strengthening in the Pacific Ocean.

On Tuesday, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology predicted that it could become a “substantial” event later in the year.

The phenomenon arises from variations in ocean temperatures.

Though Indian and US meteorological departments have early predicted the El Nino, it was then considered as “weak”.

“Certainly the models aren’t predicting a weak event. They are predicting a moderate-to-strong El Nino event. So this is a proper El Nino event, this is not a weak one or a near miss as we saw last year,” said David Jones, from Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s climate information services branch said.

He, however, adds there would always be a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts. “But across the models as a whole we would suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event,” he added.

A strong or substantial El Nino could compound problems for India as several farmers have already committed suicide after their crops got damaged due to unseasonal rains.

If the monsoon also turns out to be weak, the rural discontent will deepen and could also hit a recovering economy.

The agricultural sector accounts for 14 per cent of India’s economy and employs nearly 50 per cent of its working population.

In the event of a failed monsoon, higher inflation could force RBI to keep interest rate at an elevated level and affect investment scenario in the country.

It could also lead to diffi- cult moments politically for many parties, including the BJP, as some of the key states will be going to polls after the rainy season this year.

Some analysts, however, are still hopeful. “More than quantity of the monsoon, what will matter is quality. Even if monsoon is below normal but is distributed will over time and geographical space the impact will not be too much,” said an analyst with a brokerage firm.