Will visas to Trump’s US be harder to get?
He may provoke strong disdain among important voting blocs, but Donald Trump is now in a two-horse race. With the potential of more Hillary e-mail scandals to come, not to mention Trump’s track record of proving pundits wrong, he has a chance of winning. So what would Donald Trump in the White House mean for Pakistan?
Back in 2008, Nawaz Sharif expressed his support for Hillary as Democratic nominee — instead of Barack Obama — for the simple reason that he knew her. But how will the Army see it? And, more broadly, how should the rest of Pakistan assess the implications of who sits in the Oval Office?
Hillary’s policies are clear enough. She has seen the ups and downs of the relationship between Islamabad and Washington over two decades.
In line with mainstream Washington opinion, she will want to reduce aid to Pakistan unless there are sPakistani concessions on Afghan Taliban. A Hillary White House would make the relationship between the US and Pakistan more transparently transactional.
It is not a great scenario from Pakistan’s point of view. Fewer funds will arrive and the pressure to “do more” will become stronger. But Pakistan’s generals have long experience of squeezing funds out of US coffers and even if that task gets a little tougher over the next four years, they will at least be on familiar territory. A Hillary presidency won’t be easy for Pakistan but it will be business as usual.
So what of Trump? Given the fluidity of his policy positions it’s difficult to know what ideas he would stick with. On the one hand he tweeted: “When will Pakistan apologise to us for providing safe sanctuary to Osama bin Laden for 6 years?! Some ally.” Against that he has expressed concern about cutting Pakistan off.
“Pakistan is semiunstable. We don’t want to see total instability,” he said in April. “We have a little bit of a good relationship. I think I’d try to keep it.” He added that while such willingness to keep aid flowing to Pakistan went against the grain, he feared that if the US cut the flow of money the country might: “go on the other side of the ledger and that could really be a disaster”.
Given his admiration of strong leaders like Putin and Modi, there are reasons to think that he would not just tilt towards India but bend over backwards to build a stronger relationship with Delhi. Trump has warned that Pakistan: “could go rogue”. He went on to say: “India is the check to Pakistan. They have their own nukes and their own Army and I would start talking at that level very, very quickly.”
However, Trump’s speeches have also suggested he remains uncertain about India. He has complained about American jobs being outsourced to India and even mimicked some of those call centre employees. But he has praised the country’s growth and expressed a desire to do business with India. Even if Trump’s political instincts tempt him to align with Delhi, his isolationism would lead him to protect the US economy.
It’s worth noting that some Hindu nationalists are highly enthusiastic about Trump and his hostility towards Muslims. Vishnu Gupta, leader Hindu Sena, recently organised a ceremony in Delhi with a giant picture of Trump set up amidst the incense. Offerings were made to bring Trump good fortune. “He’s our hero,” Gupta said. “We are praying for Trump because… he’s the only man who can put an end to Islamic terrorism.”
It all suggests a Trump White House might be more similar to a Hillary one than many would expect. Under both candidates, even if aid gets tougher and the money flows smaller, US funds will be there. Having said that, Trump might pull US troops out of Afghanistan quicker than Hillary. That would increase Afghan instability and boost the Taliban. But having said all that, there is still the issue of travel restrictions. Pakistanis have long complained about the discrimination they face when trying to get into the US. Even if Trump significantly waters down his pledges on banning Muslims, the difficulties Pakistanis face getting into the US would increase if Trump won. In the end, from the point of view of Pakistan, the main issue may come down to the ease of obtaining a US visa. The writer is a British journalist and author of Pakistan: Eye of the Storm By arrangement with Dawn