India, Japan: Changing dynamics in Asia

The just held summit in Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Japan counterpart Shinzo Abe is a reminder of the changing strategic dynamics in Asia. Its key features are — China no longer keeps the low profile it did while growing economically and now strikes an assertive military stance; and the apparent indifference of the US toward the Asia-Pacific under President Donald Trump. Although Asia’s leading powers — Japan and India — continue seeking meaningful engagement with Beijing on the economic front and on issues pertaining to the global commons, the Chinese military ambitions have long ceased to be concealed. China claims 90 per cent of the South China Sea, putting itself at odds with all countries of the SCS littoral; it has engaged in military manoeuvres against Japan over a disputed island; and sought to array its military will against India in Doklam recently.

These are overt signs of the regional and international political environment being unsettled. Fortunately for New Delhi and Tokyo, the two began to read the Chinese tea leaves some time ago. In November 2013, the Japanese emperor and empress — noted for their reticence — paid a visit to India, and in January 2014 Mr Abe was the chief guest for the Republic Day. Under Mr Modi, the ties have gathered greater strategic momentum; indeed when the Indian and the Japanese leaders met in Ahmedabad, it was their tenth getting together in three years. But it would be an error to view the relationship as a military alliance although maritime security in the Asia-Pacific was underlined. The joint statement mentioned the resolve of the two “special strategic and global partners” to challenge international terrorism and named Pakistan-based terrorist groups. China was subtly criticised for the way it was seeking to prosecute its OBOR project, and in deference to India a special mention was made of the need to respect the “sovereignty” of countries while pursuing connectivity objectives.

Mr Abe said that he and Mr Modi were “in full agreement” on the North Korea issue. In their unpublicised conversation, it appears that the China-Pakistan enablement of Pyongyang to become a nuclear weapons and missiles power did make an appearance. South China Sea was not specifically mentioned, but was covered under the rubric of the AsiaPacific. India and Japan have now moved ahead in civil nuclear cooperation with Japan overcoming earlier hesitation, and the two leaders publicly sealed the bullet train project in India, marking a stride in infrastructure partnership. Developing the Indian Northeast to underpin India’s Look East Policy and building of the Africa-Asia Economic Corridor is also part of the partnership vision. But the purchase of the US2i amphibious aircraft from Japan remains to be clinched. What’s evident is the slow stabilising of a deep-going partnership with a much-needed strategic vision.

Under Narendra Modi, the ties have gathered greater strategic momentum; indeed when the Indian and the Japanese leaders met in Ahmedabad, it was their tenth getting together in three years