2017 was tame, 2018 to see more action
The year that is about to end did not see any major political developments in Telangana State. There were no by-elections that could assess the people’s mood, nor were there mergers or tie-ups among political parties that could have signalled a change in the wind, except that the Telangana Telugu Desam disintegrated further as some of its leaders left the party.
2018 is likely to be very different as there is a possibility that simultaneous polls for state assemblies and the Centre may be held, but even if that does not happen, we will be on the threshold of the 2019 General Election.
There has been a change in the political situation since the last election in 2014 and this may develop in various ways in the coming year.
The YSR Congress Party headed by Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy had emerged stronger in Khammam district in 2014, with one MP and three MLAs. But all of them later joined the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and no effort has been made to revive the party in Telangana in the intervening years.
The BSP, which got two Assembly seats in Adilabad in 2014, no longer exists in the state, and the same is the case of the AAP. The lone MLA from the Communist Party of India (CPI) has also joined the ruling TRS.
The TRS has absorbed several individuals or parties and is supported by the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM). All its energies are now directed at weakening the Congress and the BJP. It was the Congress that moved away from the MIM and there are no signs of any rethinking in the party, which may benefit the TRS.
The TRS is in a stronger position today. It had got more seats and votes in North Telangana in 2014, but is now spread throughout the state.
As the main opposition party, the Congress has decided to rework its strategy in 2018 and concentrate on uniting all forces and individuals opposing the TRS. It wants the CPI to support it by way of a tie-up and indications so far are that the CPI may do so in order to rebuild its lost base.
The problem is with the Communist Party of India (Marxist). So far, the CPI(M) Central Council did not approve its general secretary Sitaram Yechury’s line of thinking to strike a political deal with the Congress. The CPI(M) already leads a front of like-minded organisations, which is working to emerge as an alternative to traditional parties. So the party needs to get its strategy clear before it can form alliances in the state.
Besides the anti-TRS and anti-establishment vote, the Congress is eyeing support from the Telangana Joint Action Committee of Prof Kodandaram, who is expected to announce his next move in the New Year. If he sides with the Congress, some more disgruntled leaders from the Telugu Desam and the TRS may join the Congress.
The BJP will try to spread its base beyond Greater Hyderabad limits with the help of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah, who have promised that they will participate in Lok Sabha segment meetings.
However, the question is which section of society will move towards the BJP. The BJP state leadership is hoping that antiCongress, anti-Majlis and anti-TRS voters will vote for the BJP. It is trying to field candidates in all the Assembly segments this time to make it a triangular contest.