Karnataka: Trial run for 2019?

With elections in Karnataka set for May 12, the two major parties, Congress and BJP, already in the thick of electioneering, will pull out all the stops for victory. Seen as a trial run for the bigger contest in 2019, preceded by polls in BJP-run Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh later this year, Karnataka could be a harbinger of which side the nation will embrace, as the BJP goes all out to secure a state it once proclaimed as its gateway to the South.

Congress CM Siddaramaiah is seeking a record second term, a feat not achieved by any government since JD(U)’s Ramakrishna Hegde called snap polls and won in 1985.

The shouting match between the Congress and the JD(S) father-son duo of H.D. Deve Gowda and H.D. Kumaraswamy underlines the Vokkaligabacked third power centre’s ability to play game-changer. The parties’ internal surveys posit roughly similar forecasts; giving the Congress an edge in 100 of 224 Assembly seats, the BJP in about 70-90; and the JD(S) to take a beating and yet play kingmaker. This raises the possibility of the BJP and JD(S) revisiting their old alliance, which went awry as Mr Kumaraswamy reneged on it, giving the BJP’s B.S. Yeddyurappa the chance to ride to victory in 2008.

For the BJP, Siddaramaiah’s goodies for farmers and others, whom the BJP is avidly wooing, and the CM’s move to break the BJP’s Lingayat base with its ploy of a separate religion tag, could complicate the caste-class calculus. BJP chief Amit Shah’s faux pas in calling Mr Yeddyurappa one of the most corrupt notwithstanding, Karnataka’s propensity to vote against the national trend is a definite possibility, in a poll just 45 days away.