Crude price, Q4 results to set market tone

Buoyed by IMD forecast of normal monsoon, good Q4 results and strong inflows from DIIs; market continued its winning streak for the fourth consecutive week despite volatility in global markets and crude touching multi-year highs during the week ended.

Benchmark indices the Sensex closed at 34,416, up by 223 points or 0.65 per cent while the Nifty closed at 10,564, up by 83 points or 0.8 per cent.

The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index and S&P BSE SmallCap index inched by 0.7 per cent and 1.07 per cent to close at 16,799 and 18,178 respectively.

The shortage of cash at ATMs and banks is stoking fears of a repeat of the chaos of November 2016. Unlike the 2016 cash shortage, which was the result of government policy, this one is driven by public nervousness. If not addressed quickly by the RBI, it could slow the pace of economic expansion — as consumption in regions facing the cash squeeze droops and small businesses run out of working capital — and erode the public’s faith in the banking system.

With crude oil prices touching four-year high of $74 a barrel, diesel price has hit the highest level ever witnessed in country’s history, while petrol price has touched a near five-year high. Oil prices have also been supported by resurgent appetite for energy around the world. Global oil demand grew during the first three months of 2018 by the most since late 2010.

Near-term trend will be dictated by Q4 results, FII and DII activity, F&O settlement, the movement of rupee and oil price movement. For the week ahead, chartists predict range of 33,800-34,850 and 10,37510,750 for the indices.