Crude oil rises to fresh highs

Venezuelan crisis, possible imposition of new sanctions on Iran weigh big on minds

London, May 7: Oil prices rose to their highest levels since late-2014 on Monday, boosted by fresh troubles for Venezuelan oil company PDVSA and a looming decision on whether the United States will re-impose sanctions on Iran.

Brent crude oil futures were at $75.78 a barrel at 1236 GMT, up 91 cents from their last close. Earlier in the session it touched its highest since November 2014 at $75.91.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 85 cents to $70.57, the first time since November 2014 that WTI had climbed above $70.

China’s Shanghai crude oil futures, launched in March, broke their dollar-converted record high, touching $72.54 on Monday.

US firm ConocoPhillips has moved to take key Caribbean assets of staterun PDVSA to enforce a $2 billion arbitration award, Reuters reported, potentially dealing a further blow to the Venezualan company’s declining oil output and exports.

The news helped to blunt the impact of a rising US oil rig count reported by Baker Hughes on Friday.

“The growth in production in the US is being counterbalanced by the simultaneous decline in Venezuela,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Venezuela’s output has halved since the early 2000s to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), hit by a lack of investment in the South American country’s oil industry.

Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid al-Falih, meanwhile, said he was concerned about possible shortages of spare crude oil production capacity.

Also boosting prices is the widespread expectation that US President Donald Trump will withdraw from the Iranian nuclear pact. Trump has a May 12 deadline to determine whether to extend sanction waivers.

“It seems that the bureaucratic wheels are turning in Washington to prepare for a sanctions snapback,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft said.

She added that “the extraterritorial nature of US sanctions, which cover energy, shipbuilding, finance, trade, insurance, means that... Iran’s oil exports could credibly be curtailed by 2,00,000-3,00,000 bpd.”

Russian energy minister Alexander Novak also pledged Russia’s 100 percent compliance in May with an Opecled pact to reduce production. But US output has soared by more than a quarter in the past two years to 10.62 million bpd and is likely to rise further this year as energy companies keep drilling.

Saudi Arabia wants higher prices as it prepares for the listing of state-run Saudi Aramco.

Brent prices are already near their late-2014 highs. The rise amounts to over 65% since June last year. Elevated oil prices are seen to take a toll on oil marketing companies, putting their profitability and refining margin under strain.

While most analysts seem to believe that the US President has already made his decision and the sanctions will be reimposed, Donald Trump had lashed out against Opec on Twitter for pushing prices too high, so there is a slim chance that he might...

Indicators are stoking inflationary pressure, keeping policymakers on their toes.