Below normal rain may cut TS agri production by 5%
The state will receive rainfall slightly less than normal rainfall during the forthcoming monsoon. The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted that the state will get 732 mm between June and September, which is 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 755 mm.
The second long-range monsoon forecast issued on Wednesday said the state can expect high quantum of rainfall in July as the forecast rainfall is 101 per cent of the normal, while it will rain less in August, at 94 per cent of the LPA.
Below normal rainfall predicted could bring down agriculture production by 5 per cent.
The impact on state’s economy is expected to be minimal as the contribution of agriculture to the state’s gross domestic product is lower when compared with other sectors. Finance minister Etela Rajender said, “The services sector remains the major contributor to the GSDP. It contributes about 55 per cent to GSDP while agriculture stands at about 17 per cent.”
What concerns the government is that any negative impact on agriculture will affect employment and livelihood in rural areas where a major chunk of the population is dependent on agriculture.
Agriculture secretary C. Parthasarathi, said, “The agriculture output has declined by 4.5 per cent on an average whenever rainfall has been below normal. The same trend was witnessed five times in the past 15 years.”
The impact on TS’ economy is expected to be minimal as the contribution of agriculture to the its gross domestic product is lower when compared with other sectors.
The state will receive rainfall slightly less rainfall than normal during the forthcoming monsoon. The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted that the state will get 732 mm between June and September, which is 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 755 mm.
Agriculture secretary C. Parthasarathi said during the 15 years, when the rainfall was either normal or above normal, in 13 years, the agri output was positive and during this period the annual average increase in production was 5.3 per cent.
The first long-range forecast in April had predicted normal monsoon for the state. The monsoon is likely to reach the state between June 5 and 8. “The below normal monsoon is because of the weak El Nino conditions and weak Indian Ocean dipole.
The global climate models had identified La Nina conditions that developed in the equatorial Pacific in later part of 2017, but the conditions turned weak early 2018 and are currently neutral,” the IMD said.
The La Nina conditions will continue to be neutral during most part of the monsoon and turn to weak El Nino conditions after the season, the IMD said.
Other states are likely to get normal monsoon this year, except the east and northeast which will witness below normal rainfall.
The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101 per cent of its LPA during July, and 94 per cent during August — both with a model error of plus or minus 9 per cent.
On the progress of the monsoon, the IMD said the conditions were favourable for its advance into some parts of northeastern states in the next 48 hours. It said conditions were likely to become favourable for the monsoon to cover some more parts of the peninsula by June 3. The IMD forecast a development of favourable circulation leading to increase in rainfall over interior Tamil Nadu, AP and TS.