Deccan Chronicle

Rising seas spell disaster

Climate change spikes sea levels

- DR AMITA SINGH

The sea rises as temperatur­es spike and polar ice melts. The fear is that many refuse to see the catastroph­e till it strikes. Chennai, Kochi and Surat are among the world’s top 20 cities will be flooded dangerousl­y Increasing ocean bed agricultur­e to feed humans and destructio­n of mangroves, combined with trashing oceans with plastics, sound the death knell for coastal habitation­s

India awaits an impending coastal disaster which is set to throw off balance human habitation­s and the nature of economic activity on her long coastline. While state government­s have to stay vigilant, prepared and ground-connected, national governance structures such as the National Disaster Management Authority under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the Climate Change Division of the Ministry of Environmen­t Forest and Climate Change should be working together beyond the demands of the Disaster Management Act of 2005.

The projection­s on the sea level rise due to human activity and climate change may drasticall­y hit Indian coastal cities and sink many rich deltas and life-giving ecosystems. The situation cannot be ignored. Many climate change studies since the Intergover­nmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 have laid out bare facts on increasing vulnerabil­ity of coastal states around the world but indicated that the situation would be unavoidabl­y precarious in India, Bangladesh to the Southeast Asian coastline towards China.

India’s coastal population has been steadily rising in the last decade. In the last decade it has exploded in numbers to around 600 million and also a relatively very high density per square km. The six most vulnerable states are West Bengal, Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtr­a.

Vulnerabil­ity is found to be higher not just due to the climate change-related projection­s on sea level rise and high density of population but more due to lack of profession­al preparedne­ss as a routine task of governance in these states. India has vital reasons to focus on preparedne­ss in disaster management due to its extremely high coastal vulnerabil­ity.

The floods in Kerala may just be a prelude to many more challenges to strike the state-level disaster management infrastruc­ture.

SEA LEVEL RISE IN 6 YEARS

In the past 100 years, the Global Mean Sea Level has risen by 10 to 20 cm. The annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has been 3.2 mm, which is twice the average rate of the preceding 80 years. The trend could threaten habitation­s across the country’s coastline. This would increase flooding from 300 per cent to almost 900 per cent and will severely affect almost 600 million population of nine coastal states, two Union Territorie­s and two island states in India. Out of the 10 most vulnerable cities in the world, India’s Mumbai and Kolkata occupy the second and third ranks after China’s Guangzhao. The subsistenc­e living on the one hand and ostentatio­us display of wealth and careless tourism on the other generate a social deficit which should also find a role in preparedne­ss measures by state government­s.

Of the world’s top 20 cities to be flooded most dangerousl­y, three are Indian cities — Chennai, Kochi and Surat. In Kochi the sea is rising faster than in the other coastal cities but the southern part of the East Coast, where tidal ranges are low leading to high sedimentat­ion and tougher wind generated waves, the inundation is relatively faster. The Diamond Harbour of Kol-kata, where the sea level rose by 5.7 mm in the last 14 years, is almost a symptom of the sinking delta. Similarly, but in lesser proportion­s, projection­s for Kochi, which has a high backwater presence, and Vembanad paddy area with a lower elevation, indicate severe loss of drinking water and vulnerabil­ity of life and livelihood due to ingress of salt water. The rise in sea levels has affected some fragile regions, making them highly vulnerable. On the eastern coast, the Ganga-Brahmaputr­a delta region is most vulnerable due to lower elevation combined with higher tidal influence. Further down, below the region, around the progressiv­e cities of Visakhapat­nam, Bhubaneshw­ar, Chennai and Nagapattin­am, stronger sea level rise may cause severe erosion, loss of land and send more ecological refugees to the country’s mainland areas. Also, the land along the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts, which is the catchment area of the Cauvery, Krishna and Godavari rivers has alluvial plains, bays, creeks, ridges, bars, mangrove swamps, marshes and lagoons. This area, as providenti­ally declared by ecologist Madhav Gadgil should not be touched and any interferen­ce in this ecology is likely to incite disasters of an unforeseen nature.

THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE

A World Bank Report of 2015 suggests that global flood losses in 2005 were estimated at $6 billion per year. This is projected to cross $1 trillion per year if climate change, subsidence and basic adaptation investment­s are taken into account.

Most of India’s coastline is fertile and has rich paddy cultivatio­n but is highly vulnerable to onshore oil exploratio­n, tourist activities and thoughtles­s infrastruc­tural expansion. If coastal preparedne­ss is ignored, the country may face a severe food crisis as well. The fisher folk around the coast are already thrown off balance in their fish catch.

The data from the Central Marine Fisheries Institute only shows a rise in the number of small fish whereas the bigger and more expensive fish catch of Alappuzha coastline has been lost in the last decade and a half. Most of the fishing communitie­s on the coastline from Alappuzha to Panjim in Goa lamented that their favourite fish are no more seen even when they traverse the interiors of the sea.

None of these communitie­s are anyway optimistic about their children endangerin­g their lives in the lost and dying occupation of catching these leftover small fish in the sea.

Sometime ago The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) developed a district-level ranking of vulnerabil­ity to one-metre sea level rise by constructi­ng a weighted index. The losses were estimated to range from `2,287 billion in the case of Mumbai to `3.6 billion in the case of Balasore (Odisha).

The scenario is worsening with many industries being set up without proper environmen­t impact assessment. This kind of activity has led to an increase in greenhouse gases, especially methane, which has precipitou­sly increased ocean acidificat­ion, knocking off marine food chain and fish catch. Coral bleaching due to acidificat­ion further weakens the livelihood of millions living on the coasts. There are two main activities which need urgent attention. First is the destructio­n of mangroves on coastlines and plankton on the bed of the ocean. Plankton is green plants and weeds on the ocean bed and also floating in the form of photo and zooplankto­ns which fight greenhouse damage to life to the extent of more than 40 per cent.

Increasing ocean bed agricultur­e to feed humans, and destructio­n of mangroves, combined with trashing oceans with plastics, sound the death knell for coastal habitation­s.

Second is the phenomenal growth of modern slaughterh­ouses which generate phenomenal greenhouse gases. Just by being vegetarian one can contain more than one fourth of CFCs in the atmosphere. Yet, physical exposure to an economic activity of this nature and proportion would need massive institutio­nal and policy changes which most states may not be prepared to undertake. Yet the national government may have to take a call on this subtle direction and gentle diversion to a new way of thinking and progressin­g in a world where we may not get a Noah’s Ark to save our transition to another world. What good would this new world be which may not have many of those we walked with in the leisurely gardens of Arcadian bliss free of greed and bloodshed.

AROUND THE PROGRESSIV­E CITIES OF VISAKHAPAT­NAM, BHUBANESHW­AR, CHENNAI AND NAGAPATTIN­AM, STRONGER SEA LEVEL RISE MAY CAUSE SEVERE EROSION AND LOSS OF LAND

(The author is Professor of Law & Governance, Chairperso­n, Special Centre for Disaster Research, JNU)

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