Games parties play: Waiting for May 23
The efforts of Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu in the past three months to play the role of a catalyst in mobilising opposition to the Narendra Modi government have evidently not borne fruit, although this may not necessarily have a bearing on the overall election outcome and the political dynamics that may take shape as the Lok Sabha results become available on May 23.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi's sharp criticism of Trinamul Congress leader and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee at a major rally at Malda on Saturday signalled the end of any bonhomie - even an artificial one - that may have been produced by Mr Naidu's efforts. Ms Banerjee, given her bristly temperament, is unlikely to take kindly to Mr Gandhi's observations and is likely to be averse in the post-poll scenario to provide any comfort to the Congress. If she has strong numbers on her side, she may probably deem all her options to be open.
Mr Gandhi's assessment of the Trinamul Congress may not entirely be without merit, but he's unlikely to have spoken out with such candour unless he felt sure there wasn't much traction left in the TMC-Congress relationship. This is like rge fate of the Congress' dynamics with the BSP in Uttar Pradesh.
Like Ms Banerjee, BSP supremo Mayawati made up her mind from the start that her party wouldn't have any truck with the Congress. In the run-up to the Assembly election in Chhattisgarh late last year, while her party's negotiations on seats were on with the Congress, the BSP leader sprang the surprise of reaching agreement with Ajit Jogi, who leads a breakaway Congress faction. Perhaps she was paving the ground for avoiding doing business with the Congress for the coming Lok Sabha polls.
With the perspective of the Trinamul, BSP and Congress toward one another becoming evident, the considerations that will drive the post-poll alliances, which are likely to come into play, will be interesting to watch.
As per present calculations being made in political circles, no single party is expected to have a majority in the 17th Lok Sabha. The BJP or the Congress are likely to face an uphill task even if they factor in their prepoll allies. That makes the significance of post-poll allies all too evident. It should cause little surprise if parties that fight each other in the Lok Sabha election find themselves on the same side of the fence in the process of government formation.
It remains to be seen if the non-BJP and non-Congress parties, other than those that have struck a pre-poll alliance with the two principal all-India formations, bunch together after the results are known in order to bargain hard with the national parties. An interesting phase in the relationship as between parties in the electoral system lies ahead, and labels do not really matter.
The BJP or the Congress are likely to face an uphill task even if they factor in their pre-poll allies. That makes the significance of post-poll allies all too evident.