Textile exports face headwinds
The domestic market could witness bout of volatility in F&O expiry week even as investors would be closely watching foreign fund activity, the global sentiments as well as key macroeconomic numbers to be released this week.
In the past week, market momentum positive, however, are expecting going forward there be profit-booking at higher levels.
"We may see further profit taking in the index and that could cascade on the broader front too. In case of decline, 10,35010,250 zone would act as cushion,” Jayant Manglik, President Retail the was analysts that will the Distribution, Religare Broking Ltd. said.
According to Manglik, private banks, energy and select infra stocks should be preferred for fresh longs while auto, metal and media pack may continue to underperform.
Technically the Nifty formed a bearish candle for the second straight session on Friday, indicating some slowdown in momentum.
"We think this is a price wise correction which is due and is of course needed to lighten up and push out the weak money. Point of inflection for the Nifty is seen at 11320 11280. The Trend is up and intact,” said Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research.
"We are looking at some consolidations in the market in a small range. It will be important to see the rollover numbers of the index and blue-chip stocks that are leading the rally. Any divergence over there shall act as a warning signal," he said.
In the derivative markets, there is long build up in the Nifty Futures, while short covering was seen in the Bank Nifty Futures and put writing at 11300-11500 level and FIIs' buying in the Index futures segment was also seen. Cotton prices have started rising at a time when the rupee is appreciating. It is a double whammy for textile exporters as it will impact the competitiveness of Indian products in the international market and hit price realisation in rupee terms.
Prices in the cotton futures market has moved up 7 per cent from the low of Rs 19,970 per bale (one bale is 170 kg) in February to Rs 21,360 in March on reports of improving demand from China and domestic mills.
"India has already shipped around 6,00,000 bales to China since October. According to reports, Indian traders have signed contracts to ship 8,00,000 bales of cotton to China as prices have rallied in that country. Moreover, cotton procurement by Cotton Corporation of India at minimum support price also helped prices to cross Rs 21,000 levels," Ritesh Kumar Sahu, Fundamental Analyst Agri Commodities, Angel Broking.
The cotton output for this year is expected to be lowest in eight years due to delayed and deficient monsoon in some of the key cotton-growing states and lower acreage in some of the southern states.
"We expect the prices will move towards Rs 23,000 levels in next one to two months if El Nino weakens the monsoon this year. Moreover, increased export and off-season demand will also support prices," added Sahu.
Higher prices will add cost pressure on the value chain, making yarn, fabric and apparel exports less competitive. Another major factor that can make Indian products less competitive in the international market is the movement of rupee. A stronger rupee will shrink the revenues of exporters by lowering price realisation.
"The situation has been further aggravated by the appreciating rupee. Both higher cotton prices and the rupee movement are reducing international competitiveness of Indian value-added textile products and would hamper the improving export trend," said Sanjay Jain, Chairman of Confederation of Indian Textile Industry.