The projections will apply further pressure on policy makers to do more to limit the health emergency and to deliver stimulus that helps companies and consumers.

growth would range per cent to 1.5 per cent.

Such slumps would not be as painful as the 0.8 per cent per cent contraction of 2009, as measured by the International Monetary Fund, but they would be worse than the downturns of 2001 and the early 1990s.

Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs anticipate a rebound in the second half, but warn that the risk remains of even greater economic pain.

The projections will apply further pressure on policy makers to do more to limit the health emergency and one to deliver stimulus that helps companies and consumers through the shock and then drives a rebound in demand afterward.

Although the US Federal Reserve and fellow central banks have been active in loosening monetary policy, most governments have been slow in responding and are only now crafting fiscal packages that may still fail to pacify worried investors.

“While the policy response will provide downside protection, the underlying damage from both Covid-19’s impact and tighter financial conditions will deliver a material shock to the global economy,” Morgan Stanley’s economists said.

The outlook could darken even further if the virus lasts longer than anticipated, or wields greater economic pain — given factories, schools, restaurants and shops are closing around the world. A freezing up of markets or a continued sluggishness by governments to act are also regarded as threats.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, strategists are laying out what governments should be doing. At JPMorgan Chase & Co., John Normand advocated developed economies repeating their handiwork of the crisis when they delivered fiscal stimulus worth one per