Panel: India may beat Covid by Feb

A 10-member panel, headed by IIT-Hyderabad’s Prof. M. Vidyasagar, claims that Covid-19 pandemic can be controlled by February with minimal active symptomatic infections if all safety protocols are strictly followed. They also cautioned that a relaxation in protective measures could lead to a rise of up to 26 lakh infections in a month.

With the festive season round the corner, the committee members, professors from other IITs and the Indian Institute of Science and scientists, warned that relaxations during the festivities and winter may increase susceptibility to the infection.

They also spoke against imposition of any fresh lockdowns at the district or state level, unless there is an imminent danger of healthcare facilities being overwhelmed.

The report has suggested that active cases had reached their peak in September, and that it was because of the imposition of an early and comprehen

THE REPORT suggested that active cases peaked in September and an early lockdown reduced peakload on healthcare system

sive lockdown that reduced the peak-load on the healthcare system.

“With no lockdown, the pandemic would have hit India very hard, with a peak-load of over 140 lakh cases in June. Given our lack of preparedness back then, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed, leading to many additional deaths”, the report stated.

The predictions and observations by the committee have been made based on a study on “Progression of the Covid19 Pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts”, conducted by eminent scientists and academicians from across the country, including IIT-H, IIT- Kanpur, CMC Vellore, ISI Kolkata, IISc Bangalore, NIE Chennai, NIV Pune, among others.

This is part of the government panel formed to evolve a national supermodel for Covid

19 progression.

The mandate of the committee was to create an evidencebased mathematical model for the pandemic after taking inputs present in the public domain from various groups and using it to analyse past events and the pandemic’s future trajectories.

The panel also rejected claims and arguments that the guest worker crisis led to a spike in infections, and also claims that a possible reason for a lower number of cases being reported now could be a lower testing rate in the country.

The committee has recommended that while following the existing personal safety protocols in their totality, people must avoid congestion, especially in closed spaces and take special care of those above

65 years and children. Personnel with co-morbidities need to be extra cautious, failing which the country will see a sharp rise in infections.