A resounding mandate against divisive politics
The spectacular Assembly election results for West Bengal and Kerala, and the special features of the state polls for Tamil Nadu and Assam, besides the Union territory of Pondicherry, are likely to be recalled for long. The results of W. Bengal mark the resounding defeat of the majority communalism brand of politics mounted full-scale with resourcefulness, energy, and the apparent misuse of state institutions, by the rulers at the Centre. But Trinamul Congress leader and chief Mamata Banerjee, fighting with her back to the wall, beat back the challenge from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah with panache and ground connect.
In 2011, Ms Banerjee had become CM by despatching the CPI(M)-led Left Front which had been entrenched for three decades. In 2021, after being the incumbent for 10 years, she sent the politics of majoritarian communalism to the cleaners, leaving a mark on the anti-BJP brand of politics in the country.
In this election, which saw cent per cent polarisation between the TMC and the BJP camps, the CPI(M) and the Congress — which had formed a front against both — were sent crashing. The BJP received a licking — and a downing of its pretensions — that is likely to haunt it for long.
The Congress in particular may have been reduced to a nullity in West Bengal. Such a crushing defeat, combined with its well below par showing in Kerala, may be expected to deepen the inner questionings already existing in the party.
Under the demonstrably capable leadership of chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the CPI(M)-led ruling Left Front, trounced the Congress-led United Democratic Front, reversing a four-decade old trend of governance alternating between the LDF and the UDF in successive Assembly polls. Like the W. Bengal result, the Kerala outcome is for the record books, though the former has the added dimension of being dramatic. For Kerala, scholars will have to ascertain whether the result heralds a long-term decline of the Congress in the state although it is well-entrenched in it, or whether the poll verdict is a conspiracy of temporary, local, processes.
The significance of the Assembly poll result for Tamil Nadu lies in the fact that the incumbent AIADMK was dethroned by the challenger DMK, although the former had teamed up with the BJP which rules at the Centre. Mr Modi and Mr Shah made several campaigning forays but this did not cut ice, confirming the West Bengal story. Partnering the DMK, the Congress did well in Tamil Nadu, achieving a high strike rate.
The AIADMK managed to hold its traditional ground in the western part of the state, but that’s the best that can be said for its efforts. This is the first election under the new generation leadership of both the Dravidian parties after the demise of the stalwarts, DMK patriarch M. Karunanidhi, and AIADMK icon J. Jayalalithaa.
The BJP retained Assam, where finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma demonstrated his personal popularity and organising skill. This could prove a problem for BJP, making it unsure whether to make him CM by ejecting the current CM Sarbananda Sonowal. The Congress came up short though it mounted a spirited challenge. Teaming up with the AIUDF, with the “Muslim party” tag attaching to it, appears to have helped neither partner, and this could have implications for Congress alliances in the future.
In Puducherry, the BJP rode on the coat-tails of regional party NRC and could be a government partner in yet one more southern geography other than Karnataka.
In 2021, after being the incumbent for 10 years, Ms Banerjee sent the politics of
majoritarian communalism to the
cleaners, leaving a mark on the anti-BJP brand of politics in the
country