EVEN WITH WAIVERS, EXTRA VACCINES MAY BE A YEAR AWAY

The US-backed effort to waive patent protection for Covid-19 vaccines, even if successful, is unlikely to narrow a yawning gap in access to life-saving shots anytime soon.

The proposal faces weeks of difficult negotiations and intense pushback from the pharmaceutical industry. And if it were to be approved at the World Trade Organization, it could take a year or more to meaningfully increase supplies, vaccine specialists said.

"The short answer is no, it's not going to make any big difference," said Klaus Stohr, a former World Health Organization official who helped mobilise governments and drugmakers to prepare for pandemics. "Patents are not the real hurdle. It's the understanding of complex technology."

The Biden administration won plaudits from health advocacy groups for backing what they describe as an important step toward achieving equitable access to vaccines, and the European Union and China signalled willingness to take part in the debate. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel appears opposed to the proposal.

"The limiting factor for the production of vaccines are manufacturing capacities and high quality standards, not the patents," a German government spokeswoman said in an email.

Even if companies diverted resources and know-how in a "full-blown technology transfer," it wouldn't make a difference before the middle of 2022, said Stohr, a former executive at drugmaker Novartis AG. Countries with ample supplies could help more quickly by committing to increased exports and publishing when and how much they can share, Stohr said.

To boost production, the priorities should be addressing a lack of key materials and components needed to make vaccines, adding manufacturing lines and more sharing of expertise to support technology transfers, said Rajeev Venkayya, president of Takeda Pharmaceutical Company's vaccines business.

"It's important for the world to be focused on the more complex issues of scaling up manufacturing rather than spending time on patents," said Venkayya, who worked in the Bush administration to develop a US pandemic flu plan.