India must be wary as it resets Afghan policy

At the present juncture, on account of the developments in Afghanistan where the Taliban have appeared on the scene in Kabul after ousting the regime that relied solely on the US for survival, India’s foreign policy faces one of the more difficult moments it has known. When the situation is complex, and could become dire if the situation deteriorates not only for the people of Afghanistan but also for Indian interests in that country and in that wider region, some non-traditional thinking is indeed called for. The institutional memory — and resources — of our foreign policymaking establishment should have every confidence that it can be equal to the task if professional judgments are permitted to prevail.

On Tuesday evening, the cabinet committee on security had the opportunity to hear in person from our ambassador in Kabul, who had just been evacuated by the Indian Air Force along with many other Indians. This will no doubt serve as an initial de-briefing as the policy evolves. We should avoid the temptation of a cardboard position arising from a fixed template.

We need to watch carefully how the Taliban work to run the system in an Afghanistan, which is vastly different in its outlook from the country from whose government they had been ousted 20 years ago. In their first announcements and actions, they have offered to temper the harsh religious precepts to which they subscribed in the earlier government they ran.

Mullah Baradar, who was once Taliban founder Mullah Omar’s principal deputy and is now the key political figure of the formerly insurgent group, has said upon reaching Kabul from Qatar that the real test of the Taliban begins now — meaning their conduct will be under scrutiny by the Afghan people, even as thousands fleeing the country out of fear, by neighbouring countries and the world.

Will Mullah Baradar’s caution be enough? We simply do not know. We also do not know if there will be popular protests in the country against the return of the Taliban. On Wednesday, however, there were. In two separate places, Jalalabad (Nangrahar province) and Khost, in eastern and southeastern Afghanistan, which border Pakistan, hundreds were out on the streets. In Jalalabad people came out with the flag of the Republic of Afghanistan and not of the Islamic Emirate that the Taliban promote. They were fired upon by the new rulers. There are reported injuries and deaths. In the capital city Kabul, Taliban guards fired on civilians making a rush for the airport. Injuries and deaths are apprehended. Meanwhile, the last Vice-President, Amrullah Saleh, who did not flee and is seeking to mobilise politically for a resistance to the Taliban, has sent out a defiant tweet.

The situation is indeed in a flux, and the time is for realism. We should give ourselves a watching brief, not an ideological one. US President Joe Biden’s remarks on August 16 to justify the irresponsible manner of America’s rushed departure appear egregious, and self-centred. His stance is unbecoming of the world’s most pre-eminent power.

Mr Biden has said the US will “continue to push for regional diplomacy and arrangement to prevent violence and instability.” A responsible power should. As a responsible regional power, India should think through the situation for itself. The interests of the US and India in Afghanistan are not identical, and can diverge. Our thinking and action should reflect this.

We need to watch carefully how the Taliban work to run the system in an Afghanistan, which is vastly different in its outlook from the country from whose government they had been ousted 20 years ago