India-Russia dialogue to keep the world guessing
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s December 6 visit for the bilateral annual summit — the 21st between the two countries — with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, although only a few hours long, squeezed in enough regional and international politics, to say nothing of the enhancement in the bilateral dimension, to keep international pundits stimulated, and guessing. The current landscape of world politics is, of course, the reason for this.
Consider the following: The US and China have lately become the two ‘superpower’ poles but in a multi-polar world (as distinct from the Cold War era bipolar international life) whose antagonisms are on frequent display. China, in its rise, has rubbed up badly not only against the US, making their ties rough, but also against India (and some others), which has readied itself militarily against China’s military forces. No country has done this after Vietnam in the late 1970s.
That provides the cutting edge to a greatly friendly relationship between New Delhi and Washington in an era when the US focuses on meeting the Chinese challenge in the Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, China is super friends with Russia since the US is decidedly adversarial to Russia while being in keen competition for international power with China.
To confound matters, India insists on keeping alive its strong traditional relationship with Russia which has a strong security dimension — and Russia responds. This can keep the Chinese somewhat off-balance. It is also apt to make deep thinkers in the US establishment wonder what New Delhi is all about.
The puzzle cannot be ‘solved’, for we are not working a mathematical equation. What we are doing instead is to attempt to appreciate the meaning of multi-polarity in international life. Welcoming Mr Putin, Mr Modi notably observed that their meeting indicated that India and Russia followed an “independent” foreign policy. Beijing would be watching too and is unlikely to be pleased about any warming of India-Russia ties in respect of Afghanistan and Central Asia (the “stans” of the Soviet era) over which Chia is seeking to imprint its hegemony.
Even at the risk of inviting US sanctions (under CAATSA), India has not flinched from proceeding with the purchase of sophisticated S-400 missile defence system from Russia worth billions of dollars. It is in the future whether the warm India-US ties will be impacted if India buys any more sophisticated weapons systems from Russia. It is also in the future how Russia would respond in future if India deepened its relationships with the Quad countries (US, Japan, Australia) in view of China’s threat to it and since Russia has strong ties with China.
In the pandemic period, Mr Putin prefers to stay at home. Six months ago he went to Geneva to meet US president Joe Biden who was relatively new in the White House then, and now he has visited New Delhi, if only for a few hours, underlining the importance he attaches to the India connection. That Mr Modi noted this in his remarks underlines the special quality of the conjuncture. Both leaders underscored the strategic component of their special and privileged relationship. Both Washington and Beijing are apt to wonder about this.
The decision arrived at for Moscow and New Delhi to coordinate their policy actions on Afghanistan is also likely to register a degree of unease in Beijing and Islamabad while being welcomed in Tehran. The ModiPutin conversation, when more details become known, may lead us to a greater appreciation of the idea of multi-polarity in the current era.