THE NATIONAL TFR WILL DIP BELOW THE REPLACEMENT LEVEL (2.1) BY 2021

without any need for the country to balance the population by international migration,” says the UN.

India is very close to this point now, as many states have, in fact, TFR below 2.1. This means India’s population is about to hit the replacement level. Or, there will be no effective population growth. India’s official data suggests this.

The National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-4, conducted in 2015-16, found India’s TFR had reached 2.2. Most Indian states had already achieved or were below 2.1 TFR (see ‘Boom to bust’, Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh had TFR

well below the replacement level. The exceptions were Bihar (3.4), Uttar Pradesh (2.7), Jharkhand

(2.6), Rajasthan (2.4), Madhya Pradesh (2.3), Chhattisgarh

(2.2), Assam (2.2) and some north-eastern states.

Darrell Bricker, author of the book that predicted an unprecedented global decline in fertility, also says, “India’s TFR

has already reached replacement rate.” Demographer and social scientist Shireen Jejeebhoy writes that 17 of the 28 states and 8 out of 9 Union Territories have reached the replacement level. The Economic Survey 2018-19 tabled in Parliament and with a chapter on population, says, “India is set to witness a sharp slowdown in population growth in the next two decades.” As per it, population in the 0-19 age bracket has already peaked due to sharp decline in TFR across the country. The Economic Survey, in fact, suggested massive reorientation of public infrastructure like schools to prepare for less population. “Further, the national TFR

will dip below the replacement level by 2021,” says Srinivas Goli, assistant professor of population studies at the Centre for

Clearly, the debate on population control has missed the current trend. Instead of celebrating an eminently successful campaign to control population, it has put the focus on further control that might negate what has been achieved. Starting from reduction in child marriage to increase in education level of women to rise in contraception, this is a success story that has not been debated.

Comparison of two groups of states helps understand the reasons for population control. Kerala and Punjab have 1.6 TFR, while Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have 3.4 and 2.7 TFR respectively. “The number of children per woman declines with her level of schooling,” says Poonam Muttreja, executive director of Delhi-based nonprofit Population Foundation of India. NFHS-4 data shows only 22.8 per cent women in Bihar attended school for 10 or more years in 2014-15. In neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the figure was 32.9 per cent. In contrast, 72.2 per cent women in Kerala attended school for 10 or more years, while the figure was 55.1 per cent in Punjab. Countrywide, women with no schooling have an average 3.1 children, compared to 1.7 children for women with 12 or more years of schooling.

A historical analysis of NFHS establishes the how fertility rates have declined over the years. From 1992-93 to 1998-99, India’s TFR decreased from 3.4 to 2.9. During this time, the number of women in 20-24 years