New hotspot
Now, rural districts contribute more new COVID-19 cases than urban
added due to GDP contraction.
The country’s GDP loss will be to the tune of `38 lakh crore in the current financial year. The top 10 states will be responsible for some 73.8 per cent of the total GDP loss. They currently account for nearly 81 per cent of total confirmed COVID-19 cases. This will translate to a per capita annual income loss of `27,000. While Maharashtra will contribute 14 per cent of the country’s total GDP loss, Goa will witness the maximum per capita loss of over `1,00,000. In Delhi, the per capita loss will be close to `90,000.
POOR PREPAREDNESS
In April, when India imposed the nationwide lockdown, it was applauded globally for early measures. Five months on, the country is witnessing the fastest growth of COVID-19 cases in the world. Between July 30 and Auust 13, it has reported more than 1 million new cases, with a daily average of 58,000 new cases. India’s current doubling rate is about 22 days, at par with Argentina and the US. The world average is 43 days. The country also has the highest death per million rate among major Asian economies.
In contrast, Ethiopia, which introduced a lockdown at the same time as India, has already flattened the curve and achieved it at a much lower economic cost than that of India. The difference lies in the fact that Ethiopia ensured coherent response by maximising coordination among public agencies at different levels. India, in contrast, has been more volatile and leading to non-calibrated exits from lockdown. In fact, states have resorted to “unplanned and unsystematic lockdowns” that are adversely impacting the economic activity. Of the 18 states analysed in the SBI report, Karnataka has the highest number of isolation beds per 100,000 population at 298. The average of the states is just 80 beds. This is alarming on two counts: one, India is nowhere near flattening the curve, and two, the disease has spread significantly to rural India.
NO END IN SIGHT
While only five states in the country have witnessed the peak (Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, and Tripura), 22 are yet to go downhill on the curve. Global experiences suggest that a region can have multiple peaks. According to the World Health Organization, before a region can relax restrictions or begin reopening, the test positivity rate from a comprehensive testing programme should be at or below 5 per cent for at least 14 days. While 18 states, including Uttar Pradesh, fall in this category, the testing rate remains far from satisfactory in most of them.
An analysis of positivity rate—how prevalent positive cases of the disease are, when compared to the number of tests being done—and tests per million indicates that in most states, including Maharashtra, Telangana, Bihar and West Bengal, the positivity rate is significantly high but tests per million are quite less. This indicates that in these states the peak is yet come and the situation will remain grave till the time the number of tests increases significantly.
RURAL IS THE NEW HOTSPOT
Rural districts, defined as areas where rural population is more than 60 per cent as per Census 2011, contributed 54 per cent of new cases in the first half of August. In July the contribution was 51 per cent. In June, the rural share was 24 per cent. Of the 50 districts that contributed most new cases in August, Andhra Pradesh comes at the top with 13 districts, of which 11 are rural. Maharashtra has 12 of the 50 districts, of which six are rural. Also, the number of rural districts with less than 10 cases has reduced significantly. In April, India had 415 rural districts with less than 10 confirmed cases. By the first half of August, only 14 such districts remain.
IN UTTAR PRADESH, COVID-19 DEATHS ALONE WILL INCREASE ITS MORTALITY RATE BY 0.16 PER CENT, WHEREAS GDP CONTRACTION WILL PUSH THE MORTALITY RATE BY 3.4 PER CENT