The importance of knowing where coronavirus came from

Experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) arrive in China today to carry out a long-anticipated investigation into the origins of the coronavirus. Ten researchers with expertise in virology, ecology and public health are hoping to answer key questions about how and when SARS-CoV-2 first infected people. Although more than a year has passed since the first reported case of coronavirus in China in December 2019, experts still do not know exactly when or where the virus emerged.

While much of the evidence so far points to horseshoe bats in China, ongoing research such as a recent study suggesting coronavirus was circulating in Italy as early as November 2019 are a reminder that infectious disease outbreaks are often more complicated than they seem. If we want to better understand how and when people get infected in the first place, for both now and future outbreaks, experts say it’s important to trace the virus back to its starting point. In the beginning of an outbreak, this can help slow the spread of a disease before it spirals out of control. If every case can be identified, every contact traced and every potential carrier quarantined, pathogens can be halted.

But even after that initial containment period is lost, as in the case with SARS-CoV-2, finding the origin of a disease can give us useful insights, says Naomi Forrester-Soto, a virologist studying vector-borne diseases at Keele University in the UK. “The more we understand about how diseases emerge, the better we can predict and control them,” Forrester-Soto told DW. That does not necessarily mean identifying coronavirus “patient zero,” which many experts, such as Forrester-Soto, no longer think is possible.

Rather, it’s about finding out in which species this virus is most likely to have emerged and in what circumstance it crossed over from animals to humans. This may help inform how we change our behaviour toward certain animals both wild and farmed, says the virologist. In the aftermath of the first Ebola epidemic in west Africa, which killed more than 11,000 people between 2014 and 2016, experts tracked the chain of disease back to the first victim: a two-year-old called Emile Ouamouno, who died in a remote part of Guinea in December 2013. One of those researchers, wildlife veterinarian and microbiologist Fabian Leendertz, who helped trace the initial Ebola infection back to bats that lived in a hollow tree where children played, joins the WHO team on its mission in China.

Leendertz’s research helped experts understand how the disease had spread and the risk posed by close contact with these animals. While identifying that first case was important in curbing Ebola, the detective work was made much easier because of how lethal and unique Ebola is, says Martin Beer, a professor of virology at the Federal Research Institute for Animal Health in Germany.

It’s possible the first people infected with coronavirus showed no symptoms at all. That, says Beer, has made piecing together the coronavirus puzzle, “very, very difficult.” “With respiratory diseases it is nearly impossible — it could be influenza or any other cold. Coronavirus patient zero themself probably does not know that they were, in fact, infected,” Beer said. Although the first case was detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and much of the speculation regarding its starting point has centred around the likelihood it passed from bats to humans through another species sold at a wet market there — it is still possible it originated somewhere else.

This article was provided by Deutsche Welle