India in the clear, but not quite

Ten months after India announced the first set of lockdowns across the nation, as the onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic tightened its grip on the subcontinent, the Ministry of Home Affairs has released its new set of guidelines keeping in mind the flattening of the COVID curve. With a dip in the daily reportage of COVID cases, the government has finally given the green signal to conduct all economic activities, except for those within containment zones, from February 1. The guidelines have mandated COVID-appropriate behaviour vis-a-vis masking, sanitation, and social distancing. The relaxations are on account of increased occupancy in entertainment spaces and permitting the general public to use swimming pools, the final guidelines for which will be released shortly. These developments are taking place as the nation crosses the 1.7 crore mark in the total number of infected cases, and 1.03 crore recoveries pan-India, while reporting an active caseload of 1.7 lakh individuals and a fatality count of 1.53 lakh. And while such measures by the government are certainly letting citizens heave a sigh of relief, thanks to the prospect of some respite from social distancing and lockdown fatigue, one must remember that we are not completely out of danger, so to speak. The reason is that not all states are healing from COVID at the same rate. For instance, in states like Maharashtra and Kerala, the active cases are still at over 43,000 and over 72,000 respectively, while here in Tamil Nadu, the active cases are in the range of over 4,600. For many days now, Kerala has been reporting the highest number of daily COVID cases in India, accounting for as much as 45 per cent of the new infections nationally. Experts have pinpointed the blame on low rates of testing, an issue that was highlighted by the Centre, as well as the problems arising from inefficient contact tracing. One expert had cited the condition of our neighbouring state as beyond control, in the backdrop of ICU beds running out and the state dragging its feet on the rollout of the COVID immunisation programme. That’s of course, one side of the story. The other major development in India, about the COVID crisis, is that the nation this week reported about 165 cases of individuals affected by the UK variant of COVID. The Union Health Ministry has said that all the affected individuals have been isolated by their respective state governments while their close contacts have been quarantined and comprehensive contact tracing has been initiated on their co-travellers and other family members. The Home Ministry’s move to offer lockdown relaxations to the country is, of course, facilitated by a government that wants the nation to get back on its feet as soon as possible, and hopefully, return to a state of business as usual. The timing is also quite telling, as mass vaccinations have started rolling out pan-India. Also, this week, the International Monetary Fund in its latest World Economic Outlook Update revealed that India is the only nation that would achieve double-digit growth in FY-22. The new projection that pegs India’s growth at 11.5 pc from a previous estimate of 8.8 pc, is said to be a sign of India’s strong rebound from the pandemic when the nation’s real GDP had shrunk by as much as 8 per cent. What is termed as ‘unlock mechanisms’ are only baby steps towards getting the economy back on the rails. It goes without saying that the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Restoring the nation’s health and wealth to pre-COVID levels is an action item that’s easier said than done. It’s essential that citizens do not get lulled into a false sense of security and give in to the temptation of revenge travel, partying and letting down one’s guard. For if that happens, the desire to experience normalcy will only lead to a much longer wait – in isolation.