TNAU predicts normal rains in South West monsoon

Most parts of the state are expected to receive normal rains in the ensuing South West monsoon set to start in a couple of days. Only five districts are predicted to get excess rains this season. From the Western region, Krishnagiri would receive 420 mm of rainfall as against its normal 375 mm and Tirupur 180 mm as against its normal 151 mm.

From the southern region, Thoothukudi would receive 80 mm as against its normal 67 mm and Tirunelveli 150 mm as against its normal 128 mm. In the Delta region, only Tiruvarur district may get surplus downpour of 340 mm as against its normal 302 mm.

However, the Delta farmers may have got a reason to rejoice as none of the Delta districts and also, other parts of the state may face deficit rains.

“Farmers from Delta districts can continue their regular cropping and cultivation pattern undisturbed as they may get normal rainfall from this South West Monsoon,” said Dr SP Ramanathan, head of the Agro Climate Research Centre of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU).

Normal rainfall is expected in districts like Ariyalur, Coimbatore, Dharmapuri, Dindigul, Erode, Kancheepuram, Kanniyakumari, Karur, Madurai, Nagapattinam, Namakkal, Perambalur, Ramanathapuram, Salem, Sivaganga, Thanjavur, Theni, Tiruvallur, Tiruchirapalli, Tiruvannamalai, The Nilgiris, Vellore, Villupuram and Virudhunagar.

While these districts have been forecast with a deviation of plus or minus ten per cent from long period average rainfall, which is considered to be normal, some districts like Chennai with 440 mm, Cuddalore with 360 mm and Pudukottai with 330 mm are forecast with exactly the same long term mean rainfall. “Last year too, Tamil Nadu received a normal South West Monsoon,” added Ramanathan.

South West monsoon season rainfall forecast has been developed based on the Southern Oscillation Index and Sea Surface Temperature values of Pacific and Indian oceans by using Australian Rainman International V.4.3. Software at Agro Climate Research Centre of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore and the prediction had a 60 per cent probability level.

Delta farmers may have got a reason to rejoice as none of the Delta districts and also, other parts of the state may face deficit rains during this season