A prestigious battle for BJP, Cong in Karnataka

BENGALURU: With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for Assembly polls in Karnataka, it remains to be seen whether the ruling BJP will buck a four-decade old trend to script history or if the Congress upstages its saffron rival to up its stakes as a challenger ahead of the 2024 parliamentary polls.

No political party has won a successive mandate in the state since 1985 and the BJP is eager to rewrite this bit of history and retain its southern citadel. The Congress is keen to wrest power to give the party a much-needed elbow room to position itself as the main opposition player in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Also what needs to be watched out for is, whether former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular), will emerge as a “Kingmaker” by holding the key to government formation, in the event of a hung verdict, as it has done in the past.

The Congress and JD(S) have announced their first list of candidates for 124 and 93 seats, respectively. Karnataka will face a three cornered contest in the May 10 elections, with a direct fight between the Congress, BJP and JD(S) on the cards in most segments.

While Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is also making efforts to make some inroads, other smaller ones like mining baron Janardhana Reddy’s Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha (KRPP), the Left, BSP, SDPI (the political wing of banned PFI) and Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) will be contesting in a select few constituencies.

Political observers feel anti-incumbency seems to be a key factor in Karnataka polls, as voters have not given any party a successive mandate. It last happened in 1985, when the Janata Party came back to power.

While Congress’ vote base is spread evenly across the state, the BJP’s is pronounced in the north and central regions due to the concentration of Veerashaiva-Lingayat community in the belt, which forms its major vote bank. JD(S) dominates the Vokkaliga bastion of Old Mysuru (southern Karnataka) region.

The BJP wants to avoid a 2018-like situation, when it had initially lost out on forming government despite emerging as the single largest party, and had to depend on defections of Congress and JD(S) MLAs to establish its administration later.