Other conflicts are replacing the war with IS
It’s regrettable that the Tehran attacks are being used to sharpen geopolitical divides
The only thing surprising about the terrorist attack on Iran’s parliament building and the tomb of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on Wednesday, which seems likely to have been carried out by the Islamic State (IS), is that it had not happened before. The IS’ hatred for Shia Muslims has been one of its defining characteristics. Iran, despite being surrounded by violence and instability, has not experienced a major terrorist attack on its cities for seven years. While a number of other Sunni groups have Iran in their crosshairs, their attacks have been minor and ineffective. What is more troubling is the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops’ (IRGC) decision to point the finger of blame at Saudi Arabia, despite the evidence of IS involvement and at a time when Riyadh has thrown in its lot with the anti-IS coalition.
The IRGC and other hardline elements in Iran to some extent see the IS as yesterday’s problem. Their focus is beginning to shift back to a renewed Tehran-Riyadh geopolitical rivalry. The Saudi-led blockade of Qatar, attempts to divide Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen and Riyadh’s encouragement of Washington to take a more hostile line against Tehran are only a few of the sins that the ayatollahs are laying at Saudi Arabia’s feet. Both camps have dirtied their hands supporting terrorist activities against the other. These are sentiments that the Persian Gulf region could do without. The election of the moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is a reminder that both Riyadh and Tehran have political voices who have previously argued Saudi ArabiaIran cooperation would be mutually beneficial.
At present moderation is not winning the policy arguments if the recent events are any indication. This reflects the strength of hardline clerics and religious paramilitaries in these countries. The attacks are being used to sharpen the geopolitics of the region — and replace the war with IS with other forms of conflict.