Why our policy makers should plan for 1.7 billion
As India prepares to become the most populous in the world by 2050, the country faces a number of challenges
The rate of growth of India’s population has begun to decline in the last two decades, but its population will continue to grow in the next four or five decades. From 1.21 billion people in 2011, it will increase to 1.5 billion by 2025 and to 1.7 billion by 2050. In just a decade from now India will replace China as the most populous country in the world. India’s policy makers need to start planning for population of 1.7 billion while keeping in focus the changes that will take place in the age structure, composition and distribution of population in the years to come.
In absolute terms, the working age population of 750 million today will be close to a billion by 2025. The number of old more than 60 will also increase from about 96 million in 2011 to 165 million by 2025 because of falling mortality and increase in longevity.
The decreasing share of young dependents in population and increasing share of those in workforce, viewed as a window of opportunity or known as demographic dividend, lasts about 30-40 years. But the demographic dividend is not automatic and does not by itself trigger processes that would help exploit its benefits. We have to seize the opportunity created by the reduction in child dependency. For reaping the benefits, there is an urgent need to invest in providing quality education at all levels to our children who will become the future work force, and designing and imparting meaningful skills to them while taking advantage of technological innovations.
To fully employ this segment of population gainfully and productively, India will have to create millions of jobs over the next few years. Given the limited education and other skills, labour-intensive manufacturing would need to grow to absorb India’s growing labour force at reasonably high productivity levels. It is expected that with the reduction in the number of children women have, a positive climate is created for them to enter the world of work. While greater female labour force participation can boost economic growth, the absorption of women will continue to be a thorny issue for years to come.
India will also have to reckon with the increase in the number of the aged. With continuous fertility decline in India, there will be fewer children to look after elderly parents in future. In such a situation, the State will have to step in through provision of social pension. Healthcare facilities to treat chronic ailments the elderly suffer from like dementia, Parkinson’s disease and mental health problems will have to be increased. Leela Visaria is Honorary Professor and former Director, Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Ahmedabad. The views expressed are personal