A STRONGER, UNITED EU IS GOOD FOR INDIA
The pro-European Union protests in the UK following last year’s shock Brexit vote may have surprised even the EU officials.
Led by a labyrinthine bureaucracy, EU was never a perfect union. At best, it was a work in progress. Just look at how member state economies crashed after the 2008 US meltdown. But it also led to EU coming together to help sustain struggling members like Greece. From the embers of that crisis – which contributed to Brexit, the rise of the Right and ascent of President Donald Trump in the US – a more united EU is emerging, with some of its leaders ready to lead the free world.
THE FACE OFF
Karan Bilimoria, member of UK’s House of Lords, says Brexit was a protest vote in many ways. But the political upheavals in opposition to austerity measures introduced at the instance of EU leadership are waning, and Germany, along with France, is determined to make the EU a stronger union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the de facto leader of the free world now, is expected to do some plain talking at the G20 summit, where she will face Trump for the first time since he pulled US out of the Paris climate accord.
Britain, on the other hand, has had a needless snap election that saw Prime Minister Theresa May lose majority, and began its tortuous exit from the EU that may lead to losses if it ends up paying the ‘divorce bill’ of some £50 billion.
That pretty much precludes other exits: Grexit, Frexit or Spexit.“Political and economic difficulties associated with Brexit negotiations and its possible economic implications have certainly an impact on any other exit talk,” says Prof Gulshan Sachdeva, Jean Monnet Chair and director of Europe Area Studies Programme at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
In the rest of Europe, the anti-refugee, anti-Muslim rhetoric that right wing parties employed in the hopes of Trump-like electoral victories fizzled out. See what happened to Norbert Hofer of Austria, Geert Wilders of the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen of France.
“The Austrian and Dutch elections did not go far right and protectionist. In France, in (Emmanuel) Macron, there is a charismatic young leader who is pro-European and centrist and has the willingness to reform,” Bilimoria says. “Trump seems isolated in the world. May has lost all her credibility.”
REVERSE BREXIT?
He even thinks Brexit may be reversed, citing a poll by Survation and the Mail on Sunday that showed 53 per cent now back a second referendum.
The European integration project chugs on, towards a larger union. Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are official candidates for EU membership. “Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are potential candidates,” says Sachdeva.
A stable, strong, united, and even bigger EU is in the best interest of India, particularly in trade and migration. UK’s visa restrictions will lead Indian professionals and students to consider EU countries as alternatives. And, during his visit to Germany, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Merkel committed to reviving the India-EU Free Trade Agreement negotiations.
India is attracted by the stability of the European continent at a time when the US is ceding its leading role in world affairs, says Dr Constantino Xavier, a fellow at Carnegie India.
But does this mean advocates of insularity in EU are suddenly obsolete?
“Many populist leaders are in control in central and eastern Europe,” Sachdeva cautions. “Even if they have not been able to form governments, right wing populism is very much alive…These parties will continue to find sufficient support to survive for some time.”
But the overall situation is not alarming, he notes, and expects reasonable political stability in major countries in the EU.
A STABLE, STRONG, UNITED, AND EVEN BIGGER EU IS IN THE BEST IN INDIA’S INTEREST, PARTICULARLY IN TRADE AND MIGRATION. UK’S VISA RESTRICTIONS WILL LEAD INDIAN PROFESSIONALS AND STUDENTS TO CONSIDER EU COUNTRIES AS ALTERNATIVE DESTINATIONS.