No serious challenge to PM Modi
For the present, the Opposition lacks a centreforward and for that matter even a goalkeeper
Some years ago riled by uncomfortable questions from journalists, a member of one of India’ s most prominent families angrily retorted :“Are you serious? Are you serious?” repeating this rhetoric al response half-adozen times. Since this was caught on cameras, it went viral on TV and social media and is still etched in public memory.
But if asked if the Opposition in India has found a leader who can galvanise the disparate parties and pose a challenge to the BJP and person a of its leader, Na rend ra Mo di, people will be excused for questioning “Are you serious?” a few times over.
When Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar was toying with the idea of a nationwide mahagathbandan by bringing together the entire gamut of regional parties, it was conceivable that such an Opposition alliance could materialise. Interms of its votesh are in the 2014 general election, the BJP is in a minority as against the combined votes of the Opposition.
But when he dramatically switched over to the NDA hitting out at the bundle of corruption charges facing his erstwhile ally Lalu Prasad and his family, the prospects of an allencompassing alliance against the BJP got well and truly torpedoed.
Kumar’s party, the JD(U) is not a major player in India. In fact even in Bihar, it was junior partner in the alliance with Prasad’s R JD. But the Bi ha rC M’ s asset was his image as an incorruptible leader and firm administrator. It is because of his image and consequent public acceptability that Prasad had to make him face of the alliance. That worked as a springboard for Kumar’s ambition to emerge on the national stage.
It is possible that he jumped the gun and jumped ship in a hurry in order to remain CM of his own state, in accordance with the‘ a bird in hand…’ principle. It is speculated that he was miffed by the refusal or delay on the part of the Congress in proposing him as leader of a future alliance. It seems he attributed this reluctance to the Congress’ persistence in pushing Rahul Gandhi as the leader of the combine.
Irrespective of the vera city of such speculation, he must have been aware that the testy relations between UP’s stalwart leaders, Mulayam Singh and Mayawati, besides the undependable reputation of several other potential members of the proposed ma ha ga thband han would make the alliance’ s viability questionable.
The episode, which ended with Kumar categorically asserting that none could aspire to defeat Modi in the 2019 general election, has sounded thedeath-knell of a possible Opposition alliance in the foreseeable future.
It hardly merits recalling that in order to be acceptable to the electorate a party or alliance needs to have a strong organisation al base and also a formidable popular leader. Although best placed among non-B JP parties, the Congress’ organisation al clout has been eroding steadily in recent years. It has been virtually wiped out in most of north India by powerful regional formations that have steadily taken over the non-BJP space, particularly in UP.
The Congress’ second handicap is its leadership which has failed to energise the cadre (or whatever remains of that) as well as the general public. Any political observer today will conclude that Modi remains the tallest leader with high acceptability, outstripping evenhisparty’s popularity at a national level.
With most elections in India having become almost presidential in nature, it is essential for parties to ensure a strong, popular face. Consequently, all regional parties have become virtually family-run organisations, dependent on the popularity of the patriarch or matriarch. While there are strong regional leadersinnon-BJPparties—MamataBanerjee in Bengal, Mulayam/Akhilesh Singh in UP, Chandra bab uN aidui nA nd hr a Pradesh and till recently, M Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu to name just a few — they are all restricted to the confines of their respective states.
Till some years ago, the sentiment against the party ruling at the Centre was strong enough to enable relative lightweights like H DD eve Gowda to be chosen prime minister by a motley group of parties. For that matter Manmohan Singh was no political heavyweight and ruled for 10 years only because he had Son ia Gandhi’ sun stinted backing, while the Congress was not in the kind of moribund state it is today.
But whenever there is a strong leader at the helm in the Centre, he or she can be electoral ly ousted either by fierce unpopularity as in the case of Ind ira Gandhi after the Emergency or by matching popular appeal. Looking at the galleryof regionalleaders today, none fitsthe bill.
But politics abhors vacuum. Although it may take some time, a powerful leader is bound to emerge in the coming years to po sea serious challenge to the B JP and Mo di. But for thepresent, theOpposition lacksacentre-forward and for that matter even a goalkeeper.