How unemployment is sparking unrest in Iran
Youth unemployment — officially measured at 29%, but likely closer to 40% — is among the highest in the world
The rapid spread of civil unrest in Iranian towns and cities has taken nearly everyone – President Hassan Rouhani’s reform-minded government, citizens, and observers – by surprise. The protests, fuelled by the rising cost of living and widening economic and social disparities, quickly morphed into a repudiation of the regime itself. While much of the anger has been directed at the clerical establishment led by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reformists have as much at stake as their hardline rivals.
Iranian reformists are not accustomed to being targets of popular frustration. In the country’s presidential elections, reformers have repeatedly channelled popular discontent into promises of a more hopeful future. That historic role is at odds with reformers’ current responsibility to restore law and order to Iran’s urban areas.
Many young Iranians doubt if Rouhani can deliver greater prosperity and a more moderate version of Islamist rule than that offered by his hardline rivals. Perhaps the biggest risk posed by the wave of unrest concerns Rouhani’s planned economic reforms. The protests erupted despite two years of modest improvement in the Iranian economy. Though squeezed by low world oil prices and anaemic in flows of foreign investment, economic indicators have been moving in the right direction since January 2016.
The biggest disappointment seems to be that growth has failed to make a dent in Iran’s staggering levels of unemployment. The total unemployment rate stands at nearly 13%, while youth unemployment – officially measured at 29%, but likely closer to 40% – is among the highest in the world.
Today, this grievance sits at the heart of popular frustration, particularly among urban youth. Job creation will remain a challenge for Rouhani. With more than 40% of the population between the ages of 15 and 34, adding enough jobs will be no easier.
There is, however, a silver lining for reformers. While many Iranians yearn for economic empowerment, many more fear a possible slide into anarchy and chaos. Unlike during the protests of 2009, and mindful of the generally disappointing outcome of the Arab Spring uprisings, Iran’s middle class has so far exercised caution, observing the demonstrations apprehensively and from a distance.
Paradoxically, it is that fear factor – rather than the hope for change among disaffected Iranians – that may yet rescue Rouhani’s agenda.