It’s not a populist budget, but a popular one, says Jaitley

‘CONSOLIDATING GAINS’ Budget a good blend of economy and politics as it builds on changes brought about by the government for the betterment of the country, says FM

NEW DELHI: The Union budget may have made the salaried middle class unhappy at the higher tax they will have to pay, the stock market fell on account of the Long Term Capital-Gains Taxonequities, and been described as populist and political by some, but finance minister Arun Jaitley is convinced it is just what was needed at this stage of the Indian economy – “to consolidate the gains” of the structural reforms the current government has undertaken.

“It is not a populist budget, but a popular one because it blends both economy and politics,” he said in an interview. Enumerating the political concerns that the government needs to address through the budget, Jaitley listed “consolidating all the gains” of this government such as “effective leadership”, an “honest government” and the “changes brought about for the betterment of the country”.

“We also need to ensure that even though there is a high acceptability of the central government and the Prime Minister, we don’t allow any anti-incumbency of any of our state governments, ”he explained. Eight states goto the polls this year, and the parliamentary elections are scheduled for next year. The B JP is already in power in several of the states that will see elections in 2018. Staying on the theme, Jaitley said the “farm crisis” and “jobs” are both important issues and that he is “looking at the nexty ear as a period of consolidation where both get addressed.”

As for the middle class, Jaitley suggested that there is enough for it in this budget too.

“There is not a single budget of mine in which the middle class has not got some relief,” he said. “Anything in the range of ₹10,000 crore plus-minus is the relief I have given in each of my budgets to the middle and lower segments of the salaried class. Even in this budget I have given a ₹8,000 cr ore relief to the salaried class and a ₹4,000 crore relief to senior citizens.”

The tax is also something the middle and higher income groups should not mind paying, according to the finance minister. “If you run massive social security schemes, a 1% cess – it is not a 1% tax – is a small contribution that people with middle or higher incomes can afford.”

There is not a single budget of mine in which the middle class has not got some relief... I have given a ₹8,000 crore relief to the salaried class...

ARUN JAITLEY, Union finance minister

Two days after presenting his Union budget, the last of the National Democratic Alliance government in its current term, finance minister Arun Jaitley spoke about the budget, his government’s political and economic concerns, and the road ahead for the economy in an interview with Shishir Gupta and R Sukumar. Edited

excerpts:

There is a feeling that this budget is antisalaried class because of the higher cess that means a higher tax outgo for most people?

I have consistently, in every budget, kept middle class interests in mind. Even in this budget, I’ve given a ₹8,000 crore relief to the salaried class, and a ₹4,000 crore relief to senior citizens. Taken together, this is the largest relief which within the limits of affordability of budget was possible.

Last year, I had brought down the lowest tax slab from 10% to 5%. Year before last, I had expanded the presumptive income scheme for traders up to ₹2 crore, for professionals up to ₹50 lakh. Before that — the first year I increased the exemption limit; subsequently, for the lower income group, I made the next ₹50,000, tax exempt; I increased the 80CC limit by ₹50,000. So systematically, anything in the range of ₹10,000 crore plus-minus is the relief that I have given in each of my years to the lower and middle segments of the salaried classes, or the trading classes.

Now if you run such massive social security schemes such as this, a 1% cess — it is not a one percent tax ; it’s one percent on the tax — is a small contribution that people with middle or higher incomes can afford to pay. Thirdly, when you improve the infrastructure — whether it’s highways or the transport system or airways or railways, or the power situation, or the healthcare system —the middle class is also the beneficiary of that.

I think good quality services is what middle classes would prefer but I have balanced giving a relief to the middle class in every budget of mine.

Staying on tax, your numbers seem to indicate tax buoyancy in both direct and indirect taxes. If this goes on, when do you think you will be in a position to rationalise tax slabs and rates?

Normally, countries have taken a few years to rationalise GST. In India we started in the first few months itself. Today we are already thinning the 28% bracket.

The mood in the GST council is that as collections rise, this should be thinned to the extent that only non-merit and luxury items remain in it. But that will be contingent on an increase in the revenues itself. And I think this is already work in progress. There is hardly a GST council meeting where rationalisation of taxes on a few dozen items does not take place. It is only at a later stage that you can think of converging the 12% and 18% slabs into the standard rate. Today if you had a single rate instead of these, it would have been inflationary in the case of certain commodities.

What about income tax rates?

We are getting to see the benefit of our actions. The number of returns is more, and the amount of tax collected is higher. In fact, against a budgeted tax estimate of 15%, at the moment we are at 18.75%. Therefore, it’s already happening. And as the base keeps expanding… Last year, I took a step towards restructuring the slabs. We are the only country in the world with a 5% slab. That’s created a difficult situation because from 5% when you jump to 20%, there is a resistance in people to move up.

Are you suggesting this is where we should expect the next change?

I am not suggesting that. The ability of any tax planner or policymaker depends on the quantum of collection. As compliance rises, the ability to rationalise structures rises. I believe that non-compliance is a curse on the compliant taxpayer because he not only pays his share but also pays the larger share of those who do not comply.

Stock market investors are also unhappy because of the introduction of the longterm capital gains tax. Can we expect to see the benefit of indexation introduced to address this?

I think it’s too soon to comment. One has to see how it works. But there is an erroneous impression that foreign institutional investors do not have the benefit of grandfa-

thering. The benefit (of no tax on transactions till January 31) is available to them. India is perhaps the only country in the world where equity investors pay a Securities Transaction Tax, LTCG, and dividend tax — would you consider rationalising this?

The ability of policymakers to consider rationalisation depends on the amount of tax and the amount of expenditure to be incurred.

Your tax revenue estimates for next year are very aggressive. Can revenue continue to grow at this rate?

I think so. Because next year, we certainly expect GDP to grow at 7.5% or so, and depending on what the inflation figures are, nominal GDP would (grow)... Tax collections should be high. In the case of personal income tax, I mentioned that the tax buoyancy which used to be 1.1% of the nominal GDP has moved up.

You have not increased the spending on defence. Aren’t you worried the Opposition will target you for compromising the country’s security?

In any area, whether it is the social sector, or infrastructure, or defence, we increase expenditure every year. We would have loved to increase more. Having been defence minister I know the requirements are more. But the fact is — it’s the size of the cake which has to be shared. Unless the cake enlarges, the only other option is to enlarge the fiscal deficit.

Are you beginning to see a formalisation of the Indian economy?

I think in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across sectors, it is happening.

Did demonetisation and GST accelerate this?

Demonetisation had three impacts – it helped us reduce the quantum of cash; it increased the tax base and ended the anonymity of cash transactions; and it encouraged digitisation. GST is more of a voluntary compliance.

Yes, but if a Tier 3 or 4 vendor from the informal sector will be pushed by his customer to get into the GST regime so that the customer can avail Input Tax Credit…

Input Tax Credit is the best anti-evasion measure you have. Now with other anti-evasion measures that will slowly come into place, I think GST will start formalising the sector faster.

Structural reforms, such as demonetisation and GST, cause temporary disruptions. Doesn’t that erode your political capital?

A structural reform disturbs the status quo. It can create a temporary upheaval. But there are larger gains… Will demonetisation set back India’s GDP by 2%? Answer is no. At worst 7.1% will become 6.7%, and then move up to 7.5%.