What the bypoll results mean

2018 shows 2019 won’t be 2014 for the BJP

Almost exactly a year ago, the BJP-led NDA swept the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, winning 325 of the 403 seats. That sweep was in keeping with its performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when the party won 71 of the 80 seats in UP. If 2014 was the first sign that the BJP was the most powerful political force in India’s most populous state, then 2017 was a reiteration. That’s why Wednesday’s verdict — the BJP lost two by-elections in the state — is all the more significant. The BJP is the dominant force in the Centre. It rules Uttar Pradesh. One of the two seats in which by-elections were held, Gorakhpur, is the pocket borough of chief minister Yogi Adityanath. The other, Phulpur, is where the current deputy CM won from in the 2014 LS polls. It isn’t clear whether a party has ever lost a LS seat vacated by its sitting CM. In 1971, TN Singh, then the CM, lost the by-election from the Maniram assembly constituency of Gorakhpur, forcing him to resign. By-elections aren’t general elections, but the nature of the BJP’s defeat — by 59,613 votes in Phulpur and 21,961 votes in Gorakhpur — indicates that the law of averages is finally catching up with the BJP.

So, what explains this? The first, of course, is that the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, traditional rivals, and with mutually exclusive bases, fought together. That, though, doesn’t explain it all. In the 2014 LS elections, the BJP won Gorakhpur with 51.8% of the vote share; the BSP and the SP together had 39.6%. Similarly, the BJP won Phulpur in 2014 with 52.43% of the vote; the SP and the BSP together had 37.38. These numbers indicate a significant swing in favour of the SP and BSP. One reason for this could be low turnout in the bypolls (Gorakhpur saw 47% turnout and Phulpur 37%). Did the BJP’s traditional supporters, confident, perhaps overly so, of a victory for their party, stay away? Another reason could be the lingering effects of demonetisation and the teething trouble over the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, both of which hit small businesses and traders hard, and the on-going agrarian crisis in India.

As an aside, in Araria, in Bihar, the RJD won the LS by-election, defeating the BJP-JDU alliance. The result establishes the power of alliances between strong parties. The RJD and the JDU proved this in Bihar before they fought and went their separate ways — also highlighting the basic problem with such partnerships. It also proves that worries about rigged EVMs are exaggerated and that the democratic process is strong. And it hints that the 2019 LS election may not be a cakewalk for the BJP.