Why the Indian Ocean is central to our geopolitics
After the Maldives crisis, India’s ability to deliver in a region critical to its strategic interests is under scrutiny
P resident Ram Nath Kovind is visiting Mauritius and Madagascar, two key island nations in the Indian Ocean region. India has announced a new $100 million line of credit for defence procurement by Mauritius. A defence cooperation agreement with Madagascar is also on the anvil. This visit comes days after India and France, eyes firmly on the Indian Ocean, signed the “reciprocal logistics support” agreement as part of which warships of both the nations would have access to each other’s naval bases.
With the Indian Ocean channels carrying two-thirds of the world’s oil shipments, a third of the bulk cargo and half of all container traffic, the region’s strategic significance remains well established. China’s rise has added another dimension where traditional power equations are now in a flux. For India, which sits astride the Indian Ocean as its pre-eminent power, this is an important phase in the evolution of its thinking on the region. The Modi government has been giving the Indian Ocean due attention with former foreign secretary S. Jaishankar arguing in favour of “reviving the Indian Ocean as a geopolitical concept.”
India has been keen to underscore that it is not merely an Indian Ocean and South Asian power but one which has the capacity and increasingly the intent to shape the wider strategic realities in the region. India’s self-defined strategic interests now straddle the wider Indo-Pacific, stretching from established framework in the Indian Ocean, to its expanding interests in the South China Sea, and indeed into the South/West Pacific. And this understanding of Indian strategic reach is now being widely accepted. The US has welcomed this growing footprint but other major powers have also responded positively. The re-emergence of Quad, involving the US, Japan, Australia and India is also a reflection of this growing consensus.
Yet as the crisis in the Maldives has indicated, India’s position in the Indian Ocean is being challenged in unprecedented ways. Merely stating the intent is no longer enough. China is challenging India in the Indian Ocean region in ways few would have anticipated even a few years back. And India’s credibility to emerge as a net security provider in the region is on the line. While India’s commitment to shape the future of the region is a welcome shift in New Delhi’s traditionally diffident posturing, India’s ability to deliver on the ground is being scrutinised more carefully now, both by the resident and extra regional powers. It is for New Delhi to live up to the expectations it has generated.