Putin’s politics may hurt Moscow’s interests
His short-sighted polices are unlikely to stem Russia’s gradual but steady decline
The least surprising political victory of the year would have to be the re-election of Vladimir Putin as president of Russia for another six-year term. Mr Putin had banned most of his Opposition from running for office. However, he is genuinely popular among many Russians. The greater concern for countries like India is whether he can stem the gradual but steady decline of Russian power. Unlike most western countries, New Delhi supports a powerful, independent Russia and sees this as important to the development of a multipolar global order. Mr Putin was able to bring an end to the post-Soviet economic chaos and gave Russians a sense of that superpower status they once had. But he was assisted by the oil price surge of the 2000s. His failure was to use this period of plenty to invest in Russia’s ageing industrial plant, funnel his people’s intellectual abilities into high-technology sectors and otherwise lay the seeds for a sustained Russian revival.
Mr Putin’s politics in the past few years has been about constructing a popular narrative that ensured his people rallied round him even as Russia’s hydrocarbon earnings began falling. His politics has been remarkably successful. Taking over a bit of the Ukraine, deliberately provoking the US and Europe by interfering in their politics, and conceding economic suzerainty of Central Asia to China has allowed him to blame western hostility for his economic failures and political regression.
Yet there is a short-sightedness about much of this. As many of these policies have been designed to help Mr Putin stay in power, they have been at the cost of Russia’s long-term interests. Russia’s GDP today is half of that of India’s and continues down a path of relative decline. Moscow’s closeness to Beijing has meant greater distance from New Delhi. The odds are he will continue a path of mild repression, provocative nationalism and minimal economic reform. This is good for Mr Putin, but not so good for Russia.