The Congress has let things slide in Odisha

If the Grand Old Party remains complacent, 2019 could see a bipolar fight between the BJD and the BJP

Congress president, Rahul Gandhi, has finally appointed one of his key aides, former Union minister Jitendra Singh, to take charge of the party’s affairs in Odisha. Singh’s appointment comes at a time when the Congress in Odisha, ridden by factional fights, is on the brink of becoming an irrelevant political force. Its local leaders have been routinely deserting the party and walking into the folds of either chief minister Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) or the rival Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). More so, after last year’s panchayat elections that saw the BJP emerge as the main opposition to the BJD and the Congress slip to a distant third position.

Odisha goes to the polls next year, concurrently with elections to the Lok Sabha. In 2014, the Congress had reported its worst-ever performance in the state, winning not a single one of the 21 Lok Sabha seats and bagging just 16 of the 147 assembly seats. Its vote share had slipped to 26% from 29% in 2009 and 35% in 2004. As things stand today, it is expected to do even worse in 2019.

Can Singh help reverse the slide? The challenges are many, but there are opportunities as well.

The BJP might have edged past the Congress as the principal opposition in the state, but it is far from emerging as a credible alternative to the ruling BJD. It cannot sell its idea of development to voters in Odisha better than chief minister Naveen Patnaik, who excels in innovating with populist welfare measures. It cannot play the politics of polarisation in Odisha, where Muslims constitute just 2% of the state’s population. Also, its politics of cultural nationalism is anathema to the people of Odisha, who take far greater pride in their language and culture.

In contrast, the Congress is in a position to offer a more credible opposition narrative. Given that it is no longer in power at the Centre, it can also accommodate Odisha’s regional aspirations better than the BJP.

That said, the first and immediate task before Singh is to stop the ongoing exodus from the party. He cannot lose time in restructuring the Pradesh Congress Committee and put in place a new president and a viable plan for 2019.

The current lacklustre Congress leadership in the state was to have been changed a year ago, after the panchayat elections. Till date, however, the search for a new, “suitable” leader remains elusive.

Jitendra Singh needs to break the impasse immediately.

An interim solution could be to pick one of the 15 MLAs who won in 2014 in the most adversarial conditions the Congress has ever faced in the state, or go by their choice for a new PCC president.

For a solution in the longer run, however, the party will have to work to create new leaders. Over the past 18 years that it has been out of power in the state, the Congress stopped attracting new talent. Leaders coming out of student and youth politics mostly joined the ranks of the ruling BJD, drawn either by the lure of power or the image of a clean leader in Naveen Patnaik. But the BJD is now beginning to get too crowded for aspiring politicians. There is an opportunity for the Congress to cash in. If it doesn’t, the BJP will. In fact, the latter is already at it.

A section of the Congress believes that it is too late to fix things for 2019 and that the party should instead focus on rebuilding its organisation for 2024. That would be suicidal.

Even today, if the Congress gets its act together , Odisha could be in for a three-cornered contest in 2019.

The ruling Biju Janata Dal will gain the most in such a scenario, especially in tribaldominated areas where the Congress used to be strong but the Bharatiya Janata Party has lately gained considerable influence. A three-way fight also benefits the Congress, especially in coastal areas where the BJP has yet to make major inroads.

But if the Congress persists with its complacency, the state will slip into a bipolar fight in 2019. It will then be all about the BJD and the BJP, and analysts would be writing the grand old party’s obituary in one more state that was once its stronghold.

THE BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY MIGHT HAVE EDGED PAST THE CONGRESS AS THE PRINCIPAL OPPOSITION IN THE STATE, BUT IT IS FAR FROM EMERGING AS A CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE RULING BIJU JANATA DAL