The Opposition needs Mayawati
Only the BSP can really impact elections beyond Uttar Pradesh
B
ypolls are of little consequence in Indian politics. However, bypolls for the Lok Sabha seats of Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana in Uttar Pradesh (UP) made national headlines. The reason was the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) defeat by a united opposition, comprising primarily of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan
Samaj arithmetic cause and the major Party 2017 suggests upsets assembly (BSP). for that Simple the elections, a grand BJP electoral in alliance the the state. BJP led In won by the the 89% 2014 SP-BSP and Lok 77% Sabha could of share total seats of Adding the with SP the and a vote Congress’s the share BSP comes of vote 43% to and share 43% 40%. and takes The 44% these combined in these numbers elections. vote repeating above 50%. its A 2014 major performance. upset in UP can spoil the BJP’s ambitions of
spectrum But politics is diverse. is not This just reality arithmetic. has the India’s potential anti-BJP of creating political difficulties Sunday, Mayawati for forging said and the sustaining BSP will any fight anti-BJP elections coalition. alone in case On the party she has is not left allocated the definition a “respectable” of respectable number ambiguous. of seats. Cleverly, The BSP is perhaps the only party apart from the Congress which can impact election results in more than a couple of states. It played smartly by allying with the Janata Dal (Secular) in the Karnataka assembly elections. Combined vote share of the Congress and the BSP exceeded that of the BJP on six out of nine occasions in assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan since 2003. Reports suggest that alliance negotiations between the two parties have been going on in these states. While the BSP is the junior partner vis-à-vis the Congress in these three states, the tables will turn in Uttar Pradesh.
This opens up another contradiction in the efforts to build a unity against the BJP. Leaders such as Sharad Pawar have said that the Opposition should focus on state-specific alliances, giving leadership to local players, rather than make attempts to put together a national-level alliance. Mayawati’s threat suggests that she might not be willing to accept this method.