A semifinal of sorts
The five state elections will set the stage for 2019
Last week, the Election Commission (EC) announced dates for elections to five assemblies, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. The outcome will be known on December 11. The elections are significant for two broad reasons: Their national impact; and for what they mean for the future of each state. First, the national picture. The fact that the state elections will be taking place so close to the 2019 general elections means that it will have a bearing on the larger political situation. It will be shaped by the national mood and it will shape national mood. A victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a majority of the states will allow it to go into 2019 with confidence, boost the morale of its already motivated cadre, allow it access to even greater resources, and preserve the bastions where it did well in 2014. A victory for the Congress in two or three of the larger states would mark a sense of revival of the party, burnish Rahul Gandhi’s credentials as a challenger to the PM, give the party much-needed resources for 2019, and enhance its negotiating capacity with smaller parties for the grand-alliance-in-the-making.
For these reasons, the assembly elections are often seen as a semi-final of sorts. In 2013, the fact that BJP swept the Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh did help the party sweep these states once again in 2014. But a caveat is necessary here. The state and the national polls are not necessarily aligned. There have often been instances when one party may have done well in the state polls right before the general elections and lost the latter — this is true for 1998-99 (the BJP lost in states but won nationally), 2003-2004 (the BJP won most states but lost nationally), and 2008-2009 (the Congress lost most states but won in the subsequent Lok Sabha polls soon after).
But what is in it for the states themselves? Telangana is a new state: the victory of the incumbent or of an alternative coalition will have an impact on the economics and institutional foundations of the state institutions. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have had BJP governments for some time, the last two for over 15 years. The continuation of existing chief ministers will mean a certain endorsement and thus continuation of the existing governance paradigm; a change will see new politics and polices. Mizoram is the only Northeast state that does not have a government aligned to the ruling National Democratic Alliance. Will we see politics continue as usual or will the BJP be able to make inroads even in this Christian-dominated state?