The battle for Chhattisgarh

The usually bipolar contest has turned triangular this time

Acritical round of state elections kicks off today with the first phase of polls in Chhattisgarh. One of India’s (relatively) newer states, Chhattisgarh only saw a Congress government for the first three years since its formation in 2000. Ever since, under Chief Minister Raman Singh, ourtake the Bharatiya Janata Party has consistently managed to win elections in tight bipolar contests. This has given the state a period of political stability, but this election will determine whether citizens in Chhattisgarh want to continue with status quo.

Three features make the Chhattisgarh election distinct. The first is the fact that in its south, the Bastar region, the Indian state confronts left wing extremists of the Communist Party of India (Maoist). Insurgency and counter insurgency has taken a heavy toll on the region’s population, particularly the adivasis often caught in the crossfire. The government has managed to push the Maoists on the defensive but they retain the ability to unleash violent attacks (as they have in recent weeks). The Maoist ideological project is the real challenge, however – it seeks to portray Indian democracy as a farce. And that is why having free and fair elections, giving citizens a voice in electing their representatives, having political activity mediated through those who believe in the Indian constitution is essential. This is the larger significance of Monday’s vote irrespective of who wins.

But the political battle itself is striking for this time, the usually bipolar contest has turned triangular. The former CM, and former Congress-man Ajit Jogi, has tied up with Mayawati, and the two together hope to win just about enough seats to be the swing force post-polls. Mr Jogi is a Congress rebel and ground evidence suggests that the third force, at least pre-polls, is ending up helping the BJP by fragmenting the opposition vote. And finally, Chhattisgarh will determine the future of Raman Singh, who has been a low-key but remarkably successful CM going by the sheer number of years he has been in power. But longevity has its pitfalls; there is a degree of voter fatigue and resentment accumulates. Mr Singh’s ability to overcome that is on test as Indian polity embarks on yet another of its periodic trysts with electorate.