What satta bazaar says: Cong in MP, Raj; BJP in Chhattisgarh

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...it is a close race with Cong slightly ahead... the prediction is Cong will get 112116 of 230 assembly seats (in MP) › Two months ago, the punters were giving the Cong 132134 seats (in Rajasthan)... Now it has gone down to 118122

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Our prediction is that BJP will win 4243 seats and the Cong 3637. The Ajit Jogiled alliance will get seven seats

NEW DELHI: Bookies operating in the satta (gambling) markets are predicting some interesting outcomes in elections to assemblies in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana.

To be sure, Indian elections are tough to predict (as many elections that follow a first past the post method are, especially when there are more than two parties) and even psephologists get them wrong. Satta markets too, have got them wrong in the past. Still, the odds they offer are telling commentaries of sentiment, although this doesn’t always translate into outcomes.

In Madhya Pradesh, the bookies, who spoke on condition of anonymity, say that while the Bharatiya Janata Party was a clear favourite in the begining, there has been a swing in favour of the Congress, with the possibility of the latter even edging out the former.

In Chhattisgarh, the bookies predict a clear victory for the BJP. In Rajasthan, they say the Congress has lost some ground to the BJP but is still clearly ahead. And in Telangana, for all the talk of the Maha Kootami or Grand Alliance, they say the odds favour the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), although the Congress-TDP-TJS grouping isn’t all that far behind.

Results of these, and the elections in Mizoram will be declared on December 11.

Satta markets operate on local sentiments and may not reflect the ground situation. “In the satta market, low price indicates victory while high price indicates defeat,” said a bookie based in Rajasthan’s Sikar town who asked not to be identified.

In Madhya Pradesh, the bookies claim that the Congress has covered a lot of ground in the past fortnight and may upset the BJP. “As per the rates, it is a close race with the Congress slightly ahead at present. The prediction is the Congress will get 112-116 of the 230 assembly seats,” said one bookie who asked not to be named.

A second bookie agreed and said that this was a change from a month ago when the odds were on the BJP winning 130 seats. This person, who too asked not to be named, had no explanation for the shift.

In Rajasthan, which has big satta markets in Sikar, Phalodi and Nokha, the operators are expecting a clear win for the Congress, though they admit the BJP has recovered some ground.

“Two months ago, the punters were giving the Congress 132-134 seats when it was a direct contest between the BJP and Congress. Now it has gone down to 118-122,” said a Sikar-based bookie who asked not to be named.

The bookies in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh said they are accepting bets at the level of con- stituencies and the entire state. The rates vary daily.

In Chhattisgarh, where polling ended on Tuesday, the satta market favours the BJP.

“Our prediction is that the BJP will win 42-43 seats and the Congress 36-37. The Ajit Jogi-led alliance will get seven seats,” said a Raipur-based satta market operator on condition of anonymity.

According to satta operators in Telangana, people are betting on the TRS returning to power. The mood has slightly changed in the past fortnight with the rates for the Congress-led grand alliance picking up,” said a Hyderabadbased bookie who asked not to be named. This person, however, believes the TRS still has the edge.