A test for the national parties

These assembly polls may have a few pointers for Lok Sabha 2019

Afiercely contested round of elections spread across India’s northern and central states (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh), south (Telangana), and Northeast (Mizoram) is coming to a close. Campaigning ended on Wednesday evening, with PM Narendra Modi continuing his

ourtake final offensive against the Congress in

Rajasthan and Congress president

Rahul Gandhi returning the favour in Telangana, the two states which go to polls on Friday.

This round of five elections matters for both the national parties. For one, it is the sheer timing. Coming four months before the national elections, it has been billed as the semi-final. This may not be a completely accurate way of describing it for there has been no necessary alignment between the outcome in some of these states and the outcome in the subsequent national polls. The presence of strong local leaders and local issues also makes it different. But what is true is that in three states — MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — there is a direct bipolar contest. The BJP’s ability to retain power and the Congress’ ability to challenge it is on test, as will be the case in 2019. Two, the BJP, after a string of bypoll defeats in parliamentary elections and being pipped at the post by opposition unity in Karnataka, is keen to prove that it remains politically dominant and reverse the perception of a slide. The Congress, which has displayed greater energy and sharp aggression under Rahul Gandhi, wants to prove that it can convert this into electoral victories.

The campaigning has also revealed that the nature of issues which will dominate the poll season of 2019. The BJP believes that it has a trump card with its welfare schemes. This is what it focused on through its campaign trail. It has supplemented this with doses of Hindutva in Rajasthan and Telangana. The Congress believes that the combination of rural distress and the Centre’s perceived failure to create jobs gives it the platform it needs. Through public display of Hindu religiosity, it has also sought to counter any attempt by the BJP to polarise the electorate. On both sides, this is what we will see over the next four months. It is curtains for the 2018 poll season, but in it, there are enough hints of what is to come in 2019.