Ashwin, Lyon duel could decide outcome of series

One of the primary reasons why India’s series against Australia is considered a great opportunity for the visitors is the strength of their pace attack. Since the start of 2015, India’s quicks have the second lowest average in the world and they have bowlers that can rival Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood. With five frontline bowlers to choose from, India have more depth than the hosts.

Yet, the nature of cricket in Australia and the balance of both teams means the spinners — Nathan Lyon and R Ashwin (and possibly Kuldeep Yadav) — are going to have a big role to play.

Pitches in Australia may not spin much — the average turn of 3.59° is the second lowest in the world. The average innings in Australia since 2013 lasts 108.2 overs – the second longest. These conditions place a responsibility on the spinner to at least hold up an end to allow the pacers to be rotated in often hot temperatures. With no genuine fifth bowling option, they will be required to do more bowling.

Australia is a finger spinner’s graveyard. Wrist spinners can spin the ball on most surfaces with negligible assistance from the pitch, but the task for finger spinners becomes significantly harder. In Tests in Australia since 1990, finger spinners have an average 48% higher .

Ashwin and Lyon are very different. Lyon is an old-fashioned off-spinner who relies on overspin and dip from a classical side-on action. Ashwin is a newage off-spinner who bowls an array of variations on a flatter, faster trajectory. It is unsurprising that in the early phase of their careers both showed a preference for home conditions. Until the end of 2015, Lyon averaged 17.39 runs per wicket fewer in Australia than in Asia and Ashwin averaged 34.24 runs per wicket fewer in Asia than in Australia.

In Australia, Lyon’s slower speeds and fuller lengths have been significantly more effective than Ashwin’s faster speeds and shorter lengths. Lyon, despite bowling fuller, extracts more bounce, likely to be explained by the overspin he imparts as opposed to Ashwin’s sidespin.

The conditions in Asia meant when Lyon succeeded there it was spectacular --- 68 wickets at 24.72 since 2016. But for Ashwin, success outside Asia is likely to be less obvious --- 18 wickets in six Tests at 31.94 are what he managed in South Africa and England despite not being fully fit. Ashwin’s improved returns there were due to bowling slower and fuller. These changes bode well for his challenge in Australia.