Why talk of Gujarat Model is absent this poll season
NEW DELHI: The success of the “Gujarat Model” of economic development was one of the biggest talking points of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) campaign in the 2014 elections. The pitch was simple, yet powerful: Gujarat outperformed India under the leadership of chief minister Narendra Modi, and if Modi was to be elected as the Prime Minister, he would replicate the same model to enhance the economic performance of the country. As the BJP seeks a second term under Modi’s leadership in the 2019 elections, there is hardly any talk of the Gujarat model now.
Has Modi been able to replicate his Gujarat model at the Centre?
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) in Gujarat was 29% more than the CAGR of GDP in India between 2002-03 and 2013-14. This is the period when Modi was the chief minister of the state. Gujarat also fared better than India by 22% in terms of manufacturing growth during this period. Manufacturing is the most critical sector for mass generation of quality non-farm employment in India.
Latest GSDP figures for Gujarat are available till 2016-17. A comparison of economic performance of Gujarat and India, after Modi became Prime Minister (2014-15 to 2016-17), shows that India still lags behind Gujarat in overall and manufacturing growth. What is also interesting is that Gujarat performed better than India on these parameters even before Modi became the chief minister of the state (see chart 1).
The short point is that Gujarat’s economic performance had been better than India’s before Modi was the chief minister, when he was the chief minister, and even after he left the state.
“These statistics clearly show that Gujarat’s economic performance had little to do with Narendra Modi”, said Himanshu, an associate professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University. “Even during the 2014 elections, a lot of economists pointed to problems vis-à-vis the economic governance of Gujarat under Modi. The 2017 assembly elections in the state further underlined the deepening rural distress in Gujarat’s economy,” he added.
“The Gujarat model has long been exposed and even the Prime Minister himself has stopped mentioning it”, said Rajeev Gowda, Rajya Sabha MP and spokesperson of the Congress. “Flogging of Dalits in Una, agitations by different social groups, poor human development indicators shows that the Gujarat model is designed to benefit only a select few. The heightened rural distress in Gujarat became known to everyone after the 2017 Assembly elections,” he added.
“The essence of Gujarat Model under Modi was high rate of growth in all sectors of the economy, which came due to improvement in irrigation facilities in agriculture and transparency in overall administration. It is normal to people who are seeking their next job to talk about their past jobs, so Modi made Gujarat model a big talking point in his election campaign in 2014. Now the narrative has changed to Modi’s India model which has focused on high growth, low inflation, significant savings due to direct transfer of subsidies and improvement in ease of doing business,” said Prof Ashwini Mahajan, co-convener of Swadeshi Jagran Manch.
Calls and messages to the BJP for a reaction on the issue did not get a response.