Exit polls predict victory for NDA; over to May 23

SURVEYS BJP, allies poised to form next govt, UPA gaining but still way behind

NEWDELHI: As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections drew to a close on Sunday evening, eight separate exit polls, conducted by different polling agencies, commissioned by different media houses, predicted that Narendra Modi was best positioned to return as India’s Prime Minister.

They, however, differed on the numbers, and the range hovered from a high of 316 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a low of 202. For the Congress, the numbers ranged from a low of 46 seats to a high of 107.

A caveat is essential here. These are exit polls, and exit polls have had a history of being inaccurate in terms of exact seat predictions. HT did not commission an independent exit poll, had no access to raw data, and cannot verify the methodological rigour and results of the separate polls. HT has also not attempted a poll of polls since that is not possible without having access to the methodology, sample representativeness, and raw data of all existing polls before drawing an overall conclusion.

But if the exit poll numbers are credible, they throw up four different scenarios. The first is of Modi’s return as PM with the BJP having a majority on its own and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies supplementing its strength in Parliament.

Four polls suggest this scenario. News 24-Today’s Chanakya has given the NDA 336-364 seats, with the BJP anywhere between 286 and 314.

The India Today-Axis poll has predicted an overwhelming 339365 seats for the NDA, with 293316 to the BJP alone.

› They (exit polls) are not foolproof and not free from human bias... The public perception is with Congress and we are waiting for May 23. RIPUN BORA, Cong Assam president

NEW DELHI: Exit polls on Sunday predicted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will increase its tally of Lok Sabha seats in the northeast.

News24-Today’s Chanakya projected seven to 13 seats for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Assam, which has 14 Lok Sabha seats. It projected 0 to six seats for the Congressled United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

Times Now-VMR has predicted the NDA will win six seats in Assam, and UPA will bag seven and others 1. NDTV’s poll of polls predicted the BJP-led alliance was likely to win nine seats and the Congress four in Assam.

ABP News-Nielsen and News18-IPSOS have made projections for the region’s all 25 seats.

News18-IPSOS gave the NDA 17 to 19 seats and the UPA 4 to 6. ABP predicted 13 seats for NDA in the region and six for the UPA.

The BJP and Congress won eight seats each in the region in 2014 while regional parties managed to get nine.

Assam minister and BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma said the media overestimated protests against the Citizenship Amendment Bill in the region.

“In spite of it, the BJP won the panchayat polls in December. Congress tried to make it an issue and yet people voted for us. All along, I have maintained that Assam supports the bill. This is a vote for the Prime Minister [Narendra Modi], for development, and a vote against the politics of appeasement,” Sarma said.

Congress’s Assam president, Ripun Bora, dismissed the exit polls as “unscientific”. “They are not foolproof and not free from human bias. The sample size of a handful is generalised to project the preference of 15-17 lakh voters. The public perception is with Congress and we are waiting for May 23 [when the election results would be declared.”