1,422 killed in normal but erratic rains this yr
Spike in extreme events, late surge makes up for early deficiency
The southwest monsoon overcame an arid start to record slightly above-average rainfall in a year that saw the highest number of extreme rainfall events and the most people killed in the season since relevant data started being recorded in 2010, showed an HT analysis a day before the monsoon officially starts retreating on Monday.
Data recorded close to 1,800 extreme rainfall events this monsoon, more than half of which were in August, underlining the expanding impact of climate change in the June-September monsoon, which accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall. Two other standout features of the monsoon this year were the bulk of showers shifting to August (it is usually in July) and the withdrawal of the monsoon getting delayed by almost a fortnight.
Between June 1 and September 14, at least 1,422 people were killed because of rains, the highest since data started being compiled by the Union home ministry nine years ago. Last year, the figure stood at 1,379 – of which Kerala alone accounted for 498 deaths.
Ministry data also showed that monsoon-related deaths were more widespread across India than any previous year with highest toll of 317 in Maharashtra, followed by 203 in West Bengal and 200 in Madhya Pradesh.
According to the India Meteorology Department (IMD), which defines 24-hour rainfall of 115mm to 201.4mm as an extreme rainfall event, three distinct extreme rainfall periods were seen this year. The first was July 10 to 15, leading to flooding in eastern Uttar Pradesh and northern Bihar; the second between July 25 and 31, causing floods in Assam; and the third between August 5 and 12, when coastal states such as Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala experienced floods.
Mritunjay Mohapatra, IMD’s director general, said the intensity of low pressure areas (that facilitate rainfall) will be ebbing from Monday, signalling the withdrawal of the monsoon, but its effect will remain for the next five days. “Thereafter, we can expect the withdrawal process of the monsoon to commence,” he said. Arvind Kumar Srivastava, head of the climate research division at IMD, Pune, said provisional figures for extreme rainfall events in 2019 were two times more than that in 2018 and 2.5 times that in 2017. “Extreme rainfall in the second part of monsoon (after July) was very high resulting in flash floods in many parts of India. Our data shows that such events this year were more than those recorded in the previous years,” said DS Pai, a senior scientist with IMD, Pune.
There were reasons for cheer, too.
The IMD rainfall data till September 15 showed India received an average of 84.1 centimetres of rain, which is 4% above normal. A monsoon is deemed normal when rainfall is between 96-104% of 80 centimetres, which is the 50-year average during the season. Rainfall above 110% is considered surplus monsoon. The average is determined by dividing the total quantum of rainfall received across the country by the total number of meteorological stations, which stands at 2,500.