Towards a graded exit
The relaxations are positive. But the economy needs help
N ever before in history, anywhere in the world, has a country of India’s population, size, and social and economic complexity shut down for 54 days. On Friday, the government extended the lockdown, which was supposed to end on May 3, for another two weeks, but with significant relaxations. This is more a graded exit plan spread over two weeks than a blanket extension of a hard lockdown. But it has been done without commensurate economic stimulus and a relief package, exposing a gap in India’s governance systems.
This newspaper supported and called for a national lockdown in March. Given what was then known about the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), social distancing was the only way to slow down the rate of the spread of the infection. And while it is impossible to know the extent to which the disease would have spread in the absence of the national lockdown, it can be said with certainty that if more human-to-human interaction was allowed, India would be staring at far higher numbers today. This period has also been used to ramp up testing (though it needs to increase even more); create Covid-19 facilities; come to a consensus on an effective model to deal with the disease; and strengthen the health care infrastructure of the country. This model of “ruthless containment” relies on testing, isolation and quarantine.
The calibrated exit is also welcome. It would have been impractical, even dangerous to have everything start up all at once. Even in the so-called red zones, enough activities have been allowed, albeit with an emphasis on safeguards. But what is perplexing is the delay in announcing an economic package. No country — even with the most resources — could have coped with a lockdown of this magnitude and the shocks to the supply chains and demand, and the impact on unemployment. India’s weak growth even before the lockdown started, and an inordinate, almost inexplicable, delay in announcing a comprehensive fiscal stimulus to support economic activity has been a glaring weakness — and the economic cost of this is being incurred every day by a range of stakeholders. The government must address this immediately, as India prepares to slowly return to business.